Just few hours before Greeks head to the polls to decide on the bailout agreement, and ultimately, whether the country will stay in the euro, there is no overwhelming advantage of either side. Actually, the margin became blurred over the last three days, with the “Yes” position rehearsing a last-minute recovery. Despite this last-minute trend, the aggregate preference for the “NO” is not too far behind. To frame this in terms of probabilities, that is, the exceeds , I adapted a short function written a while ago to simulate from a Dirichlet distribution, and then to compute posterior probabilities shown in the chart below. It’s really nothing, but the YES outperformed the NO in 57%.
The polls were aggregated and the “Don’t Know” respondents were distributed accordingly to proportion of the Yes/No reported by the polls.
With polls yesterday showing both sides in a dead heat, today’s overwhelmingly majority of voters saying NO is a big surprise, isn’t? Plenty of theories will appear to explain why Greeks have chosen to reject the terms of the deal as proposed by EU officials, meanwhile, it’s time for the parties to set up the plan B.