recessions

Recession forecasting III: A Better Naive Forecast

September 20, 2011 | 0 Comments

In Recession Forecasting Part II, I compared the accuracy of Hussman's recession forecasts to the accuracy of a naive forecast that assumed the current state of the recession variable would continue next month. An anonymous comment...
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Recession forecasting II: Assessing Hussman’s Accuracy

August 22, 2011 | 0 Comments

In my last post on recessions, I implemented John Hussman's Recession Warning Composite in R. In this post I will examine how well this index performs and discuss how we might improve it. If you would like to follow along at home, be sure to run the ...
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