# Posts Tagged ‘ Probability ’

## when Nuns or Hells Angels get in a plane

February 24, 2011
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Today, at lunch, Matthieu told us a nice story (or call it a paradox if you like) about the probability to find you seat empty when you get in a place.  a plane full of nuns Assume that you are in the line to get in the airplane, you are the ...

## Estimate Probability and Quantile

January 25, 2011
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Simple root finding and one dimensional integrals algorithms were implemented in previous posts. These algorithms can be used to estimate the cumulative probabilities and quantiles. Here, take normal distribution as an example. Read More: 281 Words Totally

## cumsum ( rnorm(50), lend="butt", lwd=12, type="h" ) Cumulative…

December 8, 2010
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cumsum ( rnorm(50), lend="butt", lwd=12, type="h" ) Cumulative sum of 50 draws from a normal distribution. File this under mysteries of the Central Limit Theorem.

## Some ideas on communicating risks to the general public

December 3, 2010
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SOME EMPIRICAL BASES FOR CHOOSING CERTAIN RISK REPRESENTATIONS OVER OTHERS This week DSN posts some thoughts (largely inspired by the work of former colleagues Stephanie Kurzenhäuser, Ralph Hertwig, Ulrich Hoffrage, and Gerd Gigerenzer) about communicating risks to the general public, providing references and delicious downloads where possible. Representations to use less often Single-event probabilities as

## Livin’ la Vida Poisson

November 5, 2010
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Yes, I did just mix English, Spanish and French. And no, I living the “fishy” life, popular opinion to the contrary. Here’s the story. As someone who spends the majority of his time working online, with no oversight, I notice that I tend to drift a lot. I don’t play solitaire, or farm for virtual

## A million ? what are the odds…

October 27, 2010
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50 days ago, I published a post, here, on forecasting techniques. I was wondering what could be the probability to have, by the end of this year, one million pages viewed (from Google Analytics) on this blog. Well, initially, it was on my blog at t...

## Central Limit Theorem A nice illustration of the Central Limit…

October 20, 2010
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Central Limit Theorem A nice illustration of the Central Limit Theorem by convolution.in R: Heaviside 0,1,0) }HH

## The Chosen One

August 30, 2010
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Toss one hundred different balls into your basket. Shuffle them up and select one with equal probability amongst the balls. That ball you just selected, it’s special. Before you put it back, increase its weight by 1/100th. Then put it back, mix up the balls and pick again. If you do this enough, at some

## R: Clash of the cannon cycles

July 19, 2010
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Imagine a unit square. Every side has length 1, perfectly square. Now imagine this square was really a fence, and you picked two spots at random along the fence, with uniform probability over the length of the fence. At each of these two locations, set down a special kind of cannon. Just like the light

## 100 Prisoners, 100 lines of code

July 9, 2010
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In math and economics, there is a long, proud history of placing imaginary prisoners into nasty, complicated scenarios. We have, of course, the classic Prisoner’s Dilemma, as well as 100 prisoners and a light bulb. Add to that list the focus of this post, 100 prisoners and 100 boxes. In this game, the warden places