COVID-19 in Belgium: is it over yet?

May 21, 2020
By

[This article was first published on R on Stats and R, and kindly contributed to R-bloggers]. (You can report issue about the content on this page here)
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Introduction

This is a joint work with Prof. Niko Speybroeck and Angel Rosas-Aguirre.

Belgium recently started to lift its lockdown measures initially imposed to contain the spread of the Covid-19. Following this decision taken by Belgian authorities, we analyze how the situation evolved so far.

Contrarily to a previous article in which I analyzed the outbreak of the Coronavirus in Belgium using the SIR model, in this article we focus on the evolution of:

  • the number of hospital admissions (per 100,000 inhabitants)
  • the number of new confirmed cases (also per 100,000 inhabitants)

at the province and national level.

Data is from Sciensano.

New hospital admissions

Belgian hospitalisations COVID-19

Belgian hospitalisations COVID-19

From the above figure, we see that the rate of hospitalizations continue with a decreasing trend in all provinces (and in Belgium as well).

Code:

New confirmed cases

New confirmed COVID-19 cases in Belgium

New confirmed COVID-19 cases in Belgium

Note that the reported number of new confirmed cases is probably underestimated. This number does not take into account undiagnosed (without or with few symptoms) or untested cases. Therefore, this figure should be interpreted with extreme caution.

Code:

Thanks for reading. We hope that these figures will keep evolving in the right direction. In the meantime, take care and stay safe!

If you would like to be further updated on the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic, two options:

  1. visit the blog from time to time, and
  2. join Twitter and follow us: NikoSpeybroeck, statsandr & arosas_aguirre

As always, if you have a question or a suggestion related to the topic covered in this article, please add it as a comment so other readers can benefit from the discussion.

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