Blog Archives

Labeling Opportunities in Price Series

August 13, 2016
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Labeling Opportunities in Price Series

One approach to trading which has been puzzling me lately, is to sit and wait for opportunities. ? Sounds simplistic, but it is indeed different than, for instance, the asset allocation strategies. In order to be able to even attempt taking advantage of these opportunities, however, we must be able to identify them. Once the The post Labeling Opportunities...

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Loading Data with Pandas

June 27, 2016
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Loading Data with Pandas

On at least a couple of occasions lately, I realized that I may need Python in the near future. While I have amassed some limited experience with the language over the years, I never spent the time to understand Pandas, its de-facto standard data-frame library. Where does one start? For me its usually with the The post Loading Data...

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Too Much Parallelism is as Bad

May 7, 2016
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Too Much Parallelism is as Bad

The other day I run a machine learning backtest on a new data set. Once I got through the LDA and QDA initial run, I decided to try xgboost. The first thing I observed was a really bad performance. The results from the following debugging session were quite surprising to me. I have been using The post Too Much...

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Volatility and Bollinger Bands

February 13, 2016
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Volatility and Bollinger Bands

It is a common knowledge that Bollinger Bands (price standard deviation added to a moving average of the price) are an indicator for volatility. Expanding bands – higher volatility, squeezing bands – lower volatility. A bit of googling and you get the idea. In my opinion – that’s wrong, unless, one uses a twisted definition The post Volatility and...

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Creating Calendars for Future’s Expiration

January 17, 2016
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Creating Calendars for Future’s Expiration

Lately I have been doing calendar analysis of various markets (future contracts). Not an overly complicated task, but has a few interesting angles and since I haven’t seen anything similar on the Net – here we go. The world of futures is not friendly – pretty much every contract has its own definition for expiration. The post Creating Calendars...

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Trading Autocorrelation?

November 15, 2015
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Trading Autocorrelation?

Markets are very smart in absorbing and reflecting information. If you think otherwise, try making money by trading. If you are new to it, make sure you don’t bet the house. In other words, markets are efficient. At least most of the time. So then why people trade? The general believe is that there are The post Trading Autocorrelation?...

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Has the S&P 500 Cleared the Earlier Sell?

October 25, 2015
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Life has been busy and has kept me away from blogging, and from trading, mostly. Still, I can’t stay away from monitoring the markets, and, with the recent rally, I started asking myself – has the situation changed since the 200 day SMA signaled an exit. What do you think – make up your mind The post Has the...

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When is a Backtest Too Good to be True? Part Two.

September 19, 2015
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In the previous post, I went through a simple exercise which, to me, clearly demonsrtates that 60% out of sample guess rate (on daily basis) for S&P 500 will generate ridiculous returns. From the feedback I got, it seemed that my example was somewhat unconvincing. Let’s dig a bit further then. Let’s add Sharpe ratio The post When is...

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When is a Backtest Too Good to be True?

September 9, 2015
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One statistic which I find useful to form a first impression of a backtest is the success/winning percentage. Since it can mean different things, let’s be more precise: for a strategy over daily data, the winning percentage is the percentage of the days on which the strategy had positive returns (in other words, the strategy The post When is...

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Yahoo Finance (CSI) Data Quirks. Or Why is the ROC not Stable?

September 1, 2015
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Yahoo Finance (CSI) Data Quirks. Or Why is the ROC not Stable?

Rotational strategies on ETFs have been a common occurrence on this blog, and I have been using something similar for real life trading for about two years now. Readers of this blog may have also noticed concerns about the stability of the computations of such strategies. At the end it turned out be a quirk The post Yahoo Finance...

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