While the previous posts on [crayon-58bb8f9870904801159552-i/] function contained two parts: theory of ETS and then the implementation – this post will cover only the latter. We won’t discuss anything new, we will mainly look into several parameters that the exponential smoothing function has and what they allow ... [Read more...]

Mixed models In the previous posts we have discussed pure additive and pure multiplicative exponential smoothing models. The next logical step would be to discuss mixed models, where some components have additive and the others have multiplicative nature. But we won’t spend much time on them because I personally ... [Read more...]

Theoretical stuff Last time we talked about pure additive models, today I want to discuss multiplicative ones. There is a general scepticism about pure multiplicative exponential smoothing models in the forecasters society, because it is not clear why level, trend, seasonality and error term should be multiplied. Well, when it ... [Read more...]

A bit of statistics As mentioned in the previous post, all the details of models underlying functions of “smooth” package can be found in extensive documentation. Here I want to discuss several basic, important aspects of statistical model underlying [crayon-58309f2b41e8b175266536-i/] and how it is implementated ... [Read more...]

Good news, everyone! “smooth” package is now available on CRAN. And it is time to look into what this package can do and why it is needed at all. The package itself contains some documentation that you can use as a starting point. For example, there are vignettes, which show ... [Read more...]

Recently I have started using LaTeX for all my documents and presentations. Don’t ask me why, I just like how texts look there rather than in products of Microsoft (and I in general dislike MS… we have a long unpleasant history). So, I sometimes need to export tables from ... [Read more...]

This is just a test page for forecastersblog.org. Ignore it, please. es() allows selecting between AIC (Akaike Information Criterion), AICc (Akaike Information Criterion corrected) and BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion, also known as Schwarz IC). The very basic information criterion is AIC. It is calculated for a chosen model using ... [Read more...]