Hello, this is a new series which I will be analysing the data from Friday practice at the Grand Prix. The focus is going to be on strategy so key to a Formula 1 race. This is the first version of this analysis, lookout for more information on future races
Relatively low degradation across the 3 compounds despite the soft being the C5 the softest of all the tyre compounds. Only one race simulation was done on the soft tyre so its curve has more uncertainty. The hard tyre only had 2 simulations as well but the degradation doesn’t really start till after 10 laps which is later than the other tyres.
Using the above degradation curves gives the above possible strategies for the race with the Medium-Hard stopping on lap 37 being the quickest. This looks like a nailed-on one-stop race with my model showing that if you stopped twice you would come home around 30 seconds behind one stopper of the same car pace. Currently, this model doesn’t take into account traffic or where a car might be starting on the grid which could be added at a later date.
Finally a snapshot of each team’s performance. Verstappen was the quickest on the long runs with Leclerc being around the same pace as Perez. The Alpine looks to be ahead of the rest of the midfield and looks good to get a 5th/6th finish. After that, it looks really close but the Haas doesn’t look that quick this weekend.