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As most people realize, this is probably one of the most data-rich primary campaigns in history, with hundreds of professional pollsters poring over every data-point trying to understand voter’s intention.

So here is another data-rich post to that end.

I was glad to discover the University of California at Santa Barbara’s webpage with tons of high-quality data related to the elections.

Amongst these are the transcripts of presidential debates going back to 1960, which I will pore over a bit further.

Because the Republican race is arguably more fun to watch, i’ll be concentrating on these debates.

## Getting and cleaning the data

# some packages for scraping and cleaning the data
library(rvest)
library(plyr)
library(dplyr)
library(stringi)
library(magrittr)

# Function to fill data frame with previous name
# (a run-on speech in the debate is recorded as a set of paragraphs)
FillEmptyDF <- function(df, col){
vector.of.nas <- is.na(df[,col])
vector.of.names <- df[,col]
#dataframe
vector.df <- data.frame(change = vector.of.nas,
names = vector.of.names)
vector.of.rows <- as.numeric(rownames(vector.df[vector.of.nas,]))
vector.of.realnames <- vector.of.rows-1
# clean if has smaller than 1
vector.of.realnames[vector.of.realnames <1] <- 1
vector.df[vector.of.rows,] <- vector.df[vector.of.realnames,]

df[, col] <- vector.df['names']
return(df)
}

# function to see if there are still NA's in data.frame
CheckDF <- function (df, errors = FALSE)
{
row.has.na <- apply(df, 1, function(x) {
any(is.na(x))
})
if (sum(row.has.na) > 0) {
r <- TRUE
}
else {
r <- FALSE
}
if (errors) {
return(row.has.na)
return(r)
}
else {
return(r)
}
}

# function to partially separate and clean into a data.frame a debate from the presidency project
MakeDebateDF<-function(df){
newdf <- data.frame(
person = apply(df,
MARGIN = 1,
function(x){
stri_extract_first_regex(x,
"[A-Z ]+(?=(:\s))")
}),
message = apply(df,
MARGIN = 1,
function(x){
stri_replace_first_regex(x,
"[A-Z ]+:\s+",
"")
}),
stringsAsFactors=FALSE
)

return(newdf)
}

Now, to download the last 4 debates (i’m only going to analyze the “big-boy” debates between top contenders and omit New Hampshire because it is not in the database). I’ll use the main webpage for the presidency project:

# Importing debates ---
# url for all debates
url <- "http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid="

### -------- debate in Wisconsin (fourth debate)
wisconsin <- "110908"

html_nodes("p") %>%
html_text()

debate_w <- ldply(debate_w, rbind)
debate_w <- MakeDebateDF(debate_w)

### -------- debate in Boulder, Col. (third debate)
boulder <- "110906"

html_nodes("p") %>%
html_text()

debate_b <- ldply(debate_b, rbind)
debate_b <- MakeDebateDF(debate_b)

### -------- debate in Simi Valley, California (second debate)
california <- "110756"

html_nodes("p") %>%
html_text()

debate_c <- ldply(debate_c, rbind)
debate_c <- MakeDebateDF(debate_c)

### -------- debate in Cleveland, Ohio (first debate)
ohio <- "110489"

html_nodes("p") %>%
html_text()

debate_h <- ldply(debate_h, rbind)
debate_h <- MakeDebateDF(debate_h)

The way the webpage is structured means that there are paragraph breaks even if it’s the same candidate speaking. Using one of the previous functions, i’ll fix this:

# loop until clean is finished...
# wisconsin
while(CheckDF(debate_w[2:length(debate_w[,1]),])){
debate_w <- FillEmptyDF(debate_w, 1)
}
# boulder
while(CheckDF(debate_b[2:length(debate_b[,1]),])){
debate_b <- FillEmptyDF(debate_b, 1)
}
# california
while(CheckDF(debate_c[2:length(debate_c[,1]),])){
debate_c <- FillEmptyDF(debate_c, 1)
}
# ohio
while(CheckDF(debate_h[2:length(debate_h[,1]),])){
debate_h <- FillEmptyDF(debate_h, 1)
}

## Analyzing

Now, for the fun part. First, let’s start with some simply word-clouds (using this excellent example as a starting point)

I’m going to use the rquery.wordcloud the function, taken shamelessly from sthda.com in the previous link to see what contenders like to talk about the most…

# Join into large d.f.
all_debates <- rbind(debate_w,
debate_b,
debate_c,
debate_h)

# these are necesary for plots
library(ggplot2)
# this is for order_axis and theme_eem
# devtools::install_github("eflores/eem")
library(eem)

trump_words <- apply(subset(all_debates, person == "TRUMP")['message'],
1,
paste)
# cloud
trump_cloud <- rquery.wordcloud(trump_words,
"text",
max.words = 300,
excludeWords = c("going","and",
"applause","get",
"got","let"))

trump_freq <- trump_cloud$freqTable # top 10 trump_top <- ggplot(order_axis( trump_freq[1:10,], word, freq), aes(x = word_o, y = freq))+ geom_bar(stat="identity", fill = eem_colors[1]) + theme_eem() + labs(title = "Top 10 words in Debates n Donald Trump", x = "Word", y = "Frequency") Donald really likes “great” more than the other candidates… Using the same process… What about Jeb Bush? He prefers to mention Hillary… Marco Rubio likes to present his tax plan… And the notoriously outspoken Cruz omits “people”, talks tax and prefers to confront “washington” more than his colleagues: ## More stats! The former stats are all about the total participation in debates, but more interesting is probably the way these candidates have (if they have), shifted views over the course of these debates. It would be interesting to do some simple arithmetic on the corpus of words… UnlistAndExtractInfo <- function(candidate){ # this function is not general - it only applies to these particular debates... # all the debates must be named the same in the parent env. # for example: debate_h ... allwords_1 <- tolower(unlist( stri_extract_all_words( apply( subset(debate_h, person == candidate)['message'], 1, paste)))) allwords_2 <- tolower(unlist( stri_extract_all_words( apply( subset(debate_c, person == candidate)['message'], 1, paste)))) allwords_3 <- tolower(unlist( stri_extract_all_words( apply( subset(debate_b, person == candidate)['message'], 1, paste)))) allwords_4 <- tolower(unlist( stri_extract_all_words( apply( subset(debate_w, person == candidate)['message'], 1, paste)))) df_insights <- data.frame( debate = c("Ohio", "California", "Colorado", "Wisconsin"), average_intervention = c(mean(stri_count_words( apply( subset(debate_h, person == candidate)['message'], 1, paste))), mean(stri_count_words( apply( subset(debate_c, person == candidate)['message'], 1, paste))), mean(stri_count_words( apply( subset(debate_b, person == candidate)['message'], 1, paste))), mean(stri_count_words( apply( subset(debate_w, person == candidate)['message'], 1, paste))) ), words_total = c(length(allwords_1),length(allwords_2),length(allwords_3),length(allwords_4)), words_unique = c(length(unique(allwords_1)), length(unique(allwords_2)), length(unique(allwords_3)), length(unique(allwords_4))), words_repeated_fromfirst = c(0, sum(allwords_2 %in% allwords_1), sum(allwords_3 %in% allwords_1), sum(allwords_4 %in% allwords_1)), unique_words_repeated_fromfirst = c(0, length(unique(allwords_2[allwords_2 %in% allwords_1])), length(unique(allwords_3[allwords_3 %in% allwords_1])), length(unique(allwords_4[allwords_4 %in% allwords_1])) ), words_repeated_fromsecond = c(0, 0, sum(allwords_3 %in% allwords_2), sum(allwords_4 %in% allwords_2)), unique_words_repeated_fromsecond = c(0, 0, length(unique(allwords_3[allwords_3 %in% allwords_2])), length(unique(allwords_4[allwords_4 %in% allwords_2])) ), words_repeated_fromthird = c(0, 0, 0, sum(allwords_4 %in% allwords_3)), unique_words_repeated_fromthird = c(0, 0, 0, length(unique(allwords_4[allwords_4 %in% allwords_3])) ) , stringsAsFactors = FALSE) return(df_insights) } # going to create a data frame with all the counts from the top candidates... candidates <- c("TRUMP","CARSON","RUBIO", "KASICH","CRUZ","BUSH", "FIORINA","PAUL","CHRISTIE") info <- NULL info_all <- NULL for(i in 1:9){ info <- UnlistAndExtractInfo(candidates[i]) info$CANDIDATE <- candidates[i]
info_all <- rbind(info_all, info)
}

# i'm going to add a few more columns...
info_all %<>% mutate(carry_over_p1 = unique_words_repeated_fromfirst/words_unique,
word_repeat = words_total/words_unique)

Let’s make some nice graphs with this information…

# graph of most words spoken by debate
ggplot(order_axis(
subset(info_all, debate != "Ohio" & CANDIDATE != "CHRISTIE"), # christie didn't go to wisconsin
CANDIDATE, carry_over_p1),
aes(x = CANDIDATE_o,
y = carry_over_p1)) +
geom_bar(stat = "identity",
aes(fill = CANDIDATE_o)) +
facet_grid(debate ~.) +
theme_eem() +
scale_fill_eem(20) +
labs(title = "Repetition of words by candidate",
x = "Candidate",
y = "% of unique words repeated from first debate")

If we take the full amount of unique words from the first debate, it’s clear the candidates haven’t been saying very different things. For example in California (the second debate), 41% of the words Trump said were the same he said in Ohio. The Donald is arguably the most repetitive, increasing this to 49% and 48% in Colorado and Wisconsin.

On the other hand, Fiorina always seems to have a surprise for viewers…

Although this could simply be due to the fact that she got very few words in the first debate (the outlier at the bottom is Fiorina) …

ggplot(subset(info_all,CANDIDATE != "CHRISTIE"),
aes(x = words_total,
y = words_unique)) +
geom_point(aes(colour = CANDIDATE), size = 3, shape = 2) +
theme_eem()+ # uses "eflores/eem"
scale_colour_eem(20) + # uses "eflores/eem"
labs(title = "Words per Debate",
x = "Total Words",
y = "Unique Words")

# average length of interventions

ggplot(info_all,
aes(x = factor(CANDIDATE),
y = average_intervention,
fill = eem_colors[1])) + # the eem colors are from "eflores/eem"
geom_boxplot() +
theme_eem()+
labs(title = "Average words per intervention",
x = "Candidate",
y = "Words") + theme(legend.position = "none")

When it comes to the average length of “interventions” (I define one as the slot a candidate is speaking in without being interrupted), Fiorina and Trump like to keep it short and simple while Rubio takes his time…

# average times unique word is repeated...

ggplot(info_all,
aes(x = factor(CANDIDATE),
y = word_repeat, fill = eem_colors[1])) +
geom_boxplot() +
theme_eem()+
labs(title = "Average repetition of unique words",
x = "Candidate",
y = "Repetitions") + theme(legend.position = "none")

Another interesting tid-bit is the average repetitions of words. Again, Trump seems like an outlier, he repeated an average of 5 times every unique word in the California debate and has been repetitive since then.

A trend seems to be emerging: Trump repeats the same thing every debate. But there should be much more proof after a few more debates…