Posts Tagged ‘ Social Science Methods ’

Help! My model fits too well!

October 22, 2010
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Help! My model fits too well!

This is sort-of related to my sidelined study of graph algebra. I was thinking about data I could apply a first-order linear difference model to, and the stock market came to mind. After all, despite some black swan sized shocks, what better predicts a day’s closing than the previous day’s closing? So,

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Dynamic Modeling 3: When the first-order difference model doesn’t cut it

June 12, 2010
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Dynamic Modeling 3: When the first-order difference model doesn’t cut it

Data must be selected carefully.  The predictive usefulness of the model is grossly diminished if outliers taint the available data.  Figure 1, for instance, shows the Defense spending (as a fraction of the national budget) between 1948 and 1968. Note how the trend curve (as defined by our linear difference model from the last post: see

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Dynamic Modeling 2: Our First Substantive Model

May 30, 2010
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Dynamic Modeling 2: Our First Substantive Model

(This is the second of a series of ongoing posts on using Graph Algebra in the Social Sciences.) First-order linear difference equations are powerful, yet simple modeling tools.  They can provide access to useful substantive insights to real-world phenomena.  They can have powerful predictive ability when used appropriately.  Additionally, they may be classified in any number

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Dynamic Modeling 1: Linear Difference Equations

May 28, 2010
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Dynamic Modeling 1: Linear Difference Equations

(This is the first in a series on the use of Graph Algebraic models for Social Science.) Linear Difference models are a hugely important first step in learning Graph Algebraic modeling.  That said, linear difference equations are a completely independent thing from Graph Algebra.  I’ll get into the Graph algebra stuff in the next post or

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