Posts Tagged ‘ R-english ’

Cursed numbers ?

January 11, 2011
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Cursed numbers ?

In Lost, Hugo “Hurley” Reyes played the numbers 4, 8, 15, 16, 23 and 42 at the lottery, and ended up winning the $114-million jackpot. And over the ensuing weeks, everyone around him seems to suffer increasingly bad luck: Hurley’s grandfathe...

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From one extreme (0) to another (1): challenge failed, but who cares…

January 9, 2011
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From one extreme (0) to another (1): challenge failed, but who cares…

Just after arriving in Montréal, at the beginning of September, I discussed statistics of my blog, and said that it might be possible - or likely - that by new year's Eve, over a million page would have been viewed on my blog (from Google's count...

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Building a fact-based world view

January 7, 2011
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Building a fact-based world view

Gapminder is an independent foundation based in Stockholm, Sweden. Its mission is “to debunk devastating myths about the world by offering free access to a fact-based world view“. They provide free online tools, data (more than 400 datasets freely available!) and videos “to better understand the changing world“. The initial development of Gapminder was the

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Generating stress scenarios: null correlation is not enough

December 28, 2010
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Generating stress scenarios: null correlation is not enough

In a recent post (here, by @teramonagi), Teramonagi mentioned the use of PCA to model yield curve, i.e. to obtain the three factor, "parallel shift", "twist" and "butterfly". As in Nelson & Siegel, if m is maturity, is the yield of the cu...

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Tennis and risk management

December 16, 2010
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Tennis and risk management

As mentioned already here, while we were going to Québec City for the workshop, we had interesting discussions in the car, and Maciej mentioned an article recently published in The Actuary, Hence, I wanted to discuss (extremely) rare event probabi...

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I really need to find hot (and sexy) topics

December 15, 2010
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I really need to find hot (and sexy) topics

50 days ago (here), I was supposed to be very optimistic about the probability that I could reach a million viewed pages on that blog (over a bit more than two years). Unfortunately, the wind has changed and today, the probability is quite low... ...

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Is it that stupid to make extremely long term forecast when studying mortality ?

December 14, 2010
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Is it that stupid to make extremely long term forecast when studying mortality ?

I received recently a comment by FCA (here) who raised an important question, about forecast in dynamic mortality models. (S)he mentioned that from his(her) point of view, the econometric models I considered were "good to predict for the next, say,...

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Confidence bands with lattice and R

December 10, 2010
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Confidence bands with lattice and R

If you use lattice with R, and you need to plot confidence limits in your graphic, then panel.smoother and panel.quantile from latticeExtra will help you with this task. These functions internally calculate the error bounds and use panel.polygon from lattice. If you need to plot your own confidence limits, then you have to define a

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New version of solaR (0.21)

December 9, 2010
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New version of solaR (0.21)

The version 0.21 of the solaR package is now available at CRAN. This package provides a set of calculation methods of solar radiation and performance of photovoltaic systems. The package has been uploaded to CRAN under the GPL-3 license. solaR is now able to calculate from both daily and sub-daily irradiation values. Besides, there are

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Finding roots of functions in actuarial science

December 7, 2010
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Finding roots of functions in actuarial science

The following simple code can be used to find roots of functions (based on the secant algorithm), secant=function(fun, x0, x1, tolerence=1e-07, niter=500){for ( i in 1:niter ) { x2 <- x1-fun(x1)*(x1-x0)/(fun(x1)-fun(x0)) if (abs(fun(x2)) < to...

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