Posts Tagged ‘ odds ’

Get Used To It

August 18, 2011
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Get Used To It

This is a brain teaser. You've been warned.The S&P 500 is in a bear market (defined as the 50-day MA being below the 200-day MA) 30.8% of the time. Also, the S&P 500 has experienced single-day 4% declines 0.242% of the time. Of the times we exp...

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Comments on probabilities

November 2, 2010
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Comments on probabilities

The only thing I remember from courses I had in probability a few years ago is that we also have to clearly defined the event we want to calculate the probability. On the Freakonomics blog, last week, the Israeli lottery was mentioned (here, see a...

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Coincidence in lotteries

October 19, 2010
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Coincidence in lotteries

Last weekend, my friend and coauthor Jean-Michel Marin was interviewed (as Jean-Claude Marin, sic!) by a national radio about the probability of the replication of a draw on the Israeli Lottery. Twice the same series of numbers appeared within a month. This lotery operates on a principle of 6/37 + 1/8: 6 numbers are drawn

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