Posts Tagged ‘ International Relations ’

Measuring the EIU Democracy Index (with Polity IV)

July 12, 2011
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Measuring the EIU Democracy Index (with Polity IV)

Yet again, I have conjured up an (academically) unusual dataset on democracy! This time it’s the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index, a weird little gem.  The dataset is the basis for a paper the Economist publishes every two years.  Because of this biannuality, there is data estimating the “Democratic-ness” of the world’s countries for 2006,

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More fun with the Failed States Index (and the State Fragility Index)

July 9, 2011
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More fun with the Failed States Index (and the State Fragility Index)

So the other day’s experiment with the Failed States Index and the Polity Data didn’t yield the linear trend I had originally expected.  After all, the two measure fundamentally distinct things.  But perhaps there’s another dataset which will match linearly.  The same people who made polity also put out a dataset called the State Fragility

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Analyzing the Failed States Index (with Polity IV)

July 7, 2011
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Analyzing the Failed States Index (with Polity IV)

So, I decided to sit down and have a little fun with that Failed States Index data I put together. To start, I expect that the dataset will be pretty linearly correlated with the polity IV data. This makes sense–true democracies aren’t failed states, and failed states tend not to be democratic. To test this,

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Dynamic Modeling 3: When the first-order difference model doesn’t cut it

June 12, 2010
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Dynamic Modeling 3: When the first-order difference model doesn’t cut it

Data must be selected carefully.  The predictive usefulness of the model is grossly diminished if outliers taint the available data.  Figure 1, for instance, shows the Defense spending (as a fraction of the national budget) between 1948 and 1968. Note how the trend curve (as defined by our linear difference model from the last post: see

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