Posts Tagged ‘ fed ’

Foreign Currencies and US 10y Treasury Yields

January 17, 2012
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Foreign Currencies and US 10y Treasury Yields

Since I explored the relationship between the Japanese Yen and the US 10y Treasury Yield on Friday, I thought it might be worthwhile to extend the exploration to a much broader range of currencies. I personally am most interested on how Asian Central B...

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Quick Update on the Components of Bond Returns

January 12, 2012
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Quick Update on the Components of Bond Returns

In Real Squeeze, -1% Guaranteed Real Real Return! Yummy??, and Historical Sources of Bond Returns, I offer some historical perspective on the only sources of bond returns: inflation, real returns, and credit.  Assuming no credit risk in US Treasur...

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Difficult Month for One of My Best Ideas

September 30, 2011
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Difficult Month for One of My Best Ideas

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.  MY IDEAS PROBABLY WILL LOSE YOU MONEY, AND I WILL NOT LET YOU KNOW WHEN I CHANGE MY MIND. Bloomberg’s article “Asian Currencies Set for Worst Month Since 1997 Crisis Caused IMF Bailouts” demonstrates why with ...

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Cash Might be Your Tail Risk

June 30, 2011
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Cash Might be Your Tail Risk

Just like James Montier Ode to the Joy of Cash and David Merkel Got Cash?, I think cash is an extremely powerful tool.  Of the 3 ingredients (land, labor, and capital) of the economy, capital (cash) is most scarce at the end of a crisis or recessi...

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Monitoring Sources of Bond Returns with ML/BAC Corporate OAS and CPI

June 28, 2011
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Monitoring Sources of Bond Returns with ML/BAC Corporate OAS and CPI

In response to the nice comment requesting an update to Monitoring Sources of Bond Return and also longer history, I thought I would update the original and then rerun with CPI to give a longer time series.  For even longer history back to 1919, s...

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Bonds Risk and Return by Rating

June 27, 2011
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Bonds Risk and Return by Rating

As an extension to the Bond Market as a Casino Game series and Historical Sources of Bond Returns-Comparison of Daily to Monthly, I thought a ggplot of risk and return by decade and Moody’s Rating might be helpful.  Anyone who has read those oth...

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Overoptimizing Chicago Fed

May 31, 2011
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Overoptimizing Chicago Fed

THIS SHOULD BE OBVIOUS THROUGHOUT THE POST BUT THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.  PLEASE DO NOT FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM AS IT COULD RESULT IN SERIOUS LOSSES. One of the perils of system-building is the tendency to unintentionally overoptimize by playing/r...

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Spreads and Stress

May 20, 2011
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Spreads and Stress

Since we have the Gifts from BAC ML and the Federal Reserve, I thought I should look at another interesting element of bonds.  Bond spreads act as a very strong symbol of financial stability and confidence.  The St. Louis Fed Stress Index is ...

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Gifts from BAC ML and the Federal Reserve

May 17, 2011
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Gifts from BAC ML and the Federal Reserve

Bank of America Merrill Lynch and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fed continue to surprise me with even more gifts.  This time they added Emerging Market Bond Indexes with history back to 1998 (cannot see Asia Pacific Crisis of 1997-1998 but...

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Bank of America Merrill Lynch Bond Returns on St. Louis Fed

May 4, 2011
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Bank of America Merrill Lynch Bond Returns on St. Louis Fed

After all my complaining about proprietary data, the St. Louis Federal Reserve announced today the availability of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Bond Indicies on their FRED site.  The data is limited in scope and duration, but accessibility especi...

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