864 search results for "finance"

A Simple Model for Realized Volatility

December 9, 2012
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A Simple Model for Realized Volatility

The post has two goals: (1) Explain how to forecast volatility using a simple Heterogeneous Auto-Regressive (HAR) model. (Corsi, 2002) (2) Check if higher moments like Skewness and Kurtosis add forecast value to this model. It will be a high … Continue reading →

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Variability in long-short decile strategy tests

December 3, 2012
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Variability in long-short decile strategy tests

How to capture return variability when testing strategies with long-short deciles. Traditional practice Question: Does variable X have predictive power for our universe of assets? A common scheme of quants to answer the question is to form a series of portfolios over time.  The portfolio at each time point: is long the equal weighting of … Continue reading...

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Discovering the quality of portfolio decisions

November 26, 2012
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Discovering the quality of portfolio decisions

Performance analysis of an example portfolio. The portfolio We explore a particular portfolio during 2007.  It invests in S&P 500 stocks and starts the year with a value of $10 million.  Initially there are 50 names in the portfolio.  It also ends the year with 50 names but has up to 53 names during the … Continue reading...

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xts and GSOC 2012

November 23, 2012
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xts and GSOC 2012

Josh Ulrich and Jeff Ryan mentored a Google Summer of Code (GSOC) project this summer focused on experimental functionality for xts in collaboration with R. Michael Weylandt, a student in operations research and financial engineering from Princeton. You might recognize Michael from his presentation at R/Finance this year, where he gave a talk entitled “A

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Escaping the simplex, part 1

November 22, 2012
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Escaping the simplex, part 1

Before tackling the main subject, two quick notes:I did not post for quite a while in part because I followed the Coursera online course Introduction to Computational Finance and Financial Econometrics.  It was a nice refresher, extremely well pre...

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Extending Commodity time series

November 21, 2012
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Extending Commodity time series

I want to follow up with Extending Gold time series post by showing how we can extend Commodity time series. Most Commodity ETFs began trading in 2006, please see the List of Commodity ETFs page. I will use DBC – PowerShares DB Commodity Fund, one on the most liquid Commodity ETFs as my proxy for

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Functional programming with lambda.r

November 20, 2012
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Functional programming with lambda.r

After a four month simmer on various back burners and package conflicts, I’m pleased to announce that the successor to …Continue reading »

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Upcoming events

November 20, 2012
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Upcoming events

New Events  Thalesians (London) 2012 November 21: Isabel Ehrlich on “Basket Options with Smile”. Abstract: Due to the distinct lack of models for basket options that remain consistent with the market smile we look at approximations that are able to accurately replicate the volatility smile. Notably we turn to the use of an Edgeworth series … Continue reading...

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The estimation of Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall

November 19, 2012
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The estimation of Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall

An introduction to estimating Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall, and some hints for doing it with R. Previously “The basics of Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall” provides an introduction to the subject. Starting ingredients Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are always about a portfolio. There are two basic ingredients that … Continue reading...

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Momentum in R: Part 3

November 18, 2012
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Momentum in R: Part 3

In the previous post, I demonstrated simple backtests for trading a number of assets ranked based on their 3, 6, 9, or 12 (i.e lookback periods) month simple returns. While it was not an exhaustive backtest, the results showed that when trading the top 8 ranked assets, the ranking based 3, 6, 9, and 12 … Continue reading...

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