## Recession forecasting II: Assessing Hussman’s Accuracy

August 22, 2011
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In my last post on recessions, I implemented John Hussman's Recession Warning Composite in R. In this post I will examine how well this index performs and discuss how we might improve it. If you would like to follow along at home, be sure to run the ...

## More useless statistics

August 22, 2011
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Over at the ExploringDataBlog, Ron Pearson just wrote a post about the cases when means are useless. In fact, it’s possible to calculate a whole load of stats on your data and still not really understand it. The canonical dataset for demonstrating this (spoiler alert: if you are doing an intro to stats course, you

## A view of useR!2011

August 22, 2011
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Start Brian Ripley The conference was opened with a talk by Brian Ripley.  I’ll distort his talk into 3 points that came across to me. 1. R Core is finite The time available from R Core members is a strictly limited good.  The more that is pushed onto R Core, the less attention to details.  … Continue reading...

## The performance cost of a for-loop, and some alternatives

August 21, 2011
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I’ve recently been spending a lot of time running various simulations in R. Because I often use snow to perform simulations across several computers/cores, results typically come back in the form of a list object. Summarizing the results from a list … Continue reading →

## tty Connection + sas7bdat: useR! 2011 Presentation Slides

August 21, 2011
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Experimenting with a tty Connection for R I presented twice at this years useR!. The first was a regular talk on the tty connection patch for R. The talk went smoothly, despite a live demonstration using the DLP-232PC data acquisition module (datasheet). The slides for this presentation are here: shotwell-tty-useR-2011.pdf The image above is a

## Prime testing function in R

August 20, 2011
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$Prime testing function in R$

I was hoping to begin tinkering a bit with the multicore package in R beyond some extremely trivial examples.  Thanks to a combination of R’s dumb quirkiness (for example, being worthless on loops), my poor planning, and general bad programming, my Saturday afternoon tinkering project is ultimately worthless in fulfilling that purpose. I was really

## useR! Conference 2011 highlights

August 20, 2011
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I was at the useR! Conference at The University of Warwick in Coventry, UK, last week. My goal in going was to learn the latest things regarding (simple) dynamic graphics, (simple) web-based apps, parallel computing, and memory management (dealing with big data sets). I got just what I was hoping for and more. There are

## Statistical Analysis Functions in R

August 20, 2011
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Lately, I've been using statistical tests on a daily basis. I've noticed that I have to format my data the same way in order to get it into R (tab-delimited flat file essentially). Every other change in order to prep that data structure for any sort of...

## When are averages useless?

Of all possible single-number characterizations of a data sequence, the average is probably the best known.  It is also easy to compute and in favorable cases, it provides a useful characterization of “the typical value” of a sequence of numbers.  It is not the only such “typical value,” however, nor is it always the most useful one: two other...

August 20, 2011
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This is a basic procedure, but could come handy. I have been reading and doing a basic manipulations with phylogenetic trees a lot lately, so there is a chunk of code for this. > library (ape)   # ape is a … Continue reading →

## Statistical construction error

August 20, 2011
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Yes, the title is meant to have two readings. The effect The Numbers Guy, among other examples, talks about the UK Office for National Statistics needing to revise its estimate for the construction sector output because of an error. Original: 2.3% growth Corrected: 0.5% growth Here is the Telegraph article cited by The Numbers Guy. … Continue reading...

## useR!2011

August 19, 2011
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useR!2011 ended yesterday. First of all, much thanks to the organizers who managed to run a conference with 400+ participants, from 41 countries smoothly. Thumbs up! It was great to meet some people from the R blog-O-sphere in person, like … Continue reading →

## useR!2011

August 19, 2011
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useR!2011 ended yesterday. First of all, much thanks to the organizers who managed to run a conference with 400+ participants, from 41 countries smoothly. Thumbs up! It was great to meat some people from the R blog-O-sphere in person, like Tal "R-blogg...

## Relation Between Fires and Distanse to the Nearest Highway

August 19, 2011
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Instead of introduction Just for fun I decided to investigate relationship between fires intensity in Leningrad region (and St. Petersburg as well) and distance to the nearest road in order to gain the evidence of the major influence of the anthropogen...

## display time series data in R

August 19, 2011
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Thanks to the Revolutions blog, several things learned here:1. R code for heat calendar2. generate SVG from R3. pretty-R toolOK. Let's explain it by plotting the fund WASCX (IVY ASSET STRATEGY FUND CLASS C) from 2009-03-14:# source code of calendarHeat...

## Friday quote: the handmaiden and the whore

August 19, 2011
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Because it is Friday and because we collect quotes: If mathematics is the handmaiden of science, statistics is the whore: all that scientists are looking for is a quick fix without the encumbrance of a meaningful relationship. Statisticians are second-class mathematicians, third-rate scientists and fourth-rate thinkers. They are the hyenas, jackals and vultures of the scientific ecology: picking...

## Friday quote: the handmaiden and the whore

August 19, 2011
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Because it is Friday and because we collect quotes: If mathematics is the handmaiden of science, statistics is the whore: all that scientists are looking for is a quick fix without the encumbrance of a meaningful relationship. Statisticians are second-class mathematicians, third-rate scientists and fourth-rate thinkers. They are the hyenas, jackals and vultures of the scientific...

## useR! 2011 roundup

August 19, 2011
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As I stand here at Heathrow waiting for my flight back to the States, I thought I'd dash off a few quick reflections of the userR! 2011 conference at University Warwick. It was an outstanding event. There's something about a conference of just a few hundred attendees (there were about 450) that creates a sense of camaraderie and common...

## Development of R (useR! 2011)

August 19, 2011
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Michael Rutter – R for Ubuntu Ubuntu 10.10 uses 2.10.1. Backports are newer versions of software for old releases. R backports are available CRAN (link). Lauchpad is a website for users to develop and maintain software (Canonical). One of Launchpad’s services is the personal package archive (PPA). This allows users to upload .deb source files, allowing

## R Function Binding Vectors and Matrices of Variable Length, bug fixed

August 19, 2011
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Now this is something very geeky, but useful. I had to bind two matrices or vectors together to become a bigger matrix. However, they need not have the same number of rows or even the same row names. The standard cbind() functions require the vectors or matrices to be compatible. The matching is “stupid”, in

## useR2011 highlights

August 18, 2011
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useR has been exhilarating and exhausting. Now it’s finished, I wanted to share my highlights. 10. My inner twelve year old schoolgirl swooning and fainting with excitement every time I chatted with a member of R-core. 9. Patrick Burns declaring that his company consists of himself and his two cats. And that one of the

## Do older SOers use fewer words?

August 18, 2011
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On StackOverflow, to posters with more experience ask their questions in fewer words? No. There's no visible difference: Chars of non-code: Chars of code: The data comes from the super-handy StackOverflow API, which was retrieved using wget and then parsed using rjson and XML. First read in and parse the JSON: so.R 1...

## Halstead’s metrics and flat-Earthers are still with us

August 18, 2011
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I recently discovered a fascinating series of technical reports from the 1970s in the Purdue University e-Pubs archive that shine a surprising light on what are now known as the Halstead metrics. The first surprises came from Halstead’s A Software Physics Analysis of Akiyama’s Debugging Data; surprising in the size of the data set used

## I, Rbot: Tweeting from R

August 18, 2011
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Over the past few weeks I’ve been running batches of JAGS simulations from R. Although these models typically converged within an hour or so, more complex models can take days, or even weeks to converge. Because we, as humans, are … Continue reading →

## HPC news from the useR2011 conference

August 18, 2011
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It was an exciting useR2011 conference at the University of Warwick, Coventry, UK. Thanks a lot to the local organizing and program committee for having this great conference. I enjoyed the variety of talks, the poster session and the conference dinner and everything within walking distance. In view of HPC for R I learned: The

## Get Used To It

August 18, 2011
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This is a brain teaser. You've been warned.The S&P 500 is in a bear market (defined as the 50-day MA being below the 200-day MA) 30.8% of the time. Also, the S&P 500 has experienced single-day 4% declines 0.242% of the time. Of the times we exp...

## Simon Urbanek – R Graphics: supercharged

August 18, 2011
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New features: rasterImage() (R2.11) bitmap raster drawing; have maps as data backdrops. Polygons with holes: polypath() -(R2.12) At present there is no way to tell when to actually show the plot. For example: plot(x); lines(x). Should we display the plot after plot or after lines Solution dev.hold() and dev.flush() Better performance and useful for animations –

August 18, 2011
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