Strange that I am updating this post for a third time and nothing really has changed, but the fact that nothing has changed is incredibly interesting to me. Since it is an update, I will not duplicate the explanation, so please read the last version Opinions Not Backed by Money Are Not That Believable–Updated and with R. The basic conclusion is that we are in a bull market and AAII surveys are bullish, but nobody is willing to bet money on a good stock market.

Data in a Google Doc (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Amqp2r96khJPdENIRnE1SG5nanJ5OXFyYVUxOXRBVmc) sourced from AAII- The American Association of Individual Investors and ICI.

R code (not even worth putting in GIST):

require(quantmod)

require(ggplot2)

aaii_ici=read.csv(“aaii-ici-noblank.csv”,row.names=1)

#using ggplot example from http://learnr.wordpress.com/2009/03/16/ggplot2-split-data-range-into-multiple-chart-series/

p <- ggplot(data=aaii_ici, aes(x = AAIIBULL-AAIIBEAR, y = runSum(aaii_ici[,4],3), colour = Range, shape = Range, label = Range))

p1 <- p + geom_point() + scale_y_continuous(limits = c(-200000, 200000),formatter=comma) + geom_hline(yintercept=0) + geom_vline(xintercept=0) + stat_smooth(method=”lm”, se=FALSE) + ylab(“ICI Equity Rolling 3-mo Sum”) + opts(title = “ICI Equity Flows by AAII Survey”)

print(p1)

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