50 days ago (here), I was supposed to be very optimistic about the probability that I could reach a million viewed pages on that blog (over a bit more than two years). Unfortunately, the wind has changed and today, the probability is quite low…

 base=read.table("millionb.csv",sep=";",header=TRUE)
X1=cumsum(base$nombre)
base=read.table("million2b.csv",sep=";",header=TRUE)
X2=cumsum(base$nombre)
X=X1+X2
 D=as.Date(as.character(base$date),"%m/%d/%Y")
kt=which(D==as.Date("01/06/2010","%d/%m/%Y"))
D0=as.Date("08/11/2008","%d/%m/%Y")
D=D0+1:length(X1)
P=rep(NA,(length(X)-kt)+1)
for(h in 0:(length(X)-kt)){
model  <- arima(X[1:(kt+h)],c(7 1,7),method="CSS") 
 forecast <- predict(model,200)
u=max(D[1:kt+h])+1:300
k=which(u==as.Date("01/01/2011","%d/%m/%Y"))
(P[h+1]=1-pnorm(1000000,forecast$pred[k],forecast$se[k]))
}
plot( D[length(D)-length(P)]+1:220,c(P,rep(NA,220-length(P))),
ylab="Probability to reach 1,000,000",xlab="",
type="l",col="red",ylim=c(0,1))

So, I guess my posts on multiple internal rates of return, or Young's inequality will have to wait next year... I really need to find some more sexy post to attract readers.. Challenge accepted !