I read the post The surprisingly weak case for global warming and the rejection; Climate: Misspecified. Based on the first, I wanted to make a post, just to write I agree with the second.The post features a number of plots like thisFor m...
Blog Archives
Triangle tests
IntroductionA triangle test is a test beloved by sensory scientists for its simplicity and general use in detecting presence of product differences. The principle is simple. Test subjects get served three samples. One of these contains A, two of these ...
Secret Santa – unfinished business
Last week I wrote:This is actually a more difficult calculation (or I forgot too much probability). Luckily a bit of brute force comes in handy. To reiterate, in general simulated data shows 0.54 redraws because of the first person etc.colSums(countsto...
Secret Santa – again
Based on comments by cellocgw I decided to look at last week's Secret Santa again. This time, the moment a person, whoever that is, draws his/her own name, the drawing starts again at the first person.IntroductionA group of n persons draws sequentially...
Secret Santa
On reddit somebody asked For n individuals, what's the probability that the last person to pick during a round of Secret Santa name picking, will pick their own name.. "With each person picking in turn, and re-picking if they pick out th...
Finishing football postings
For now this is the last post about these football data. It started in August, by now it is November. But just to finish up; the model as it should have been last week.ModelAs most of what I did is described last week, only the model as it went in Jags...
Mixed distribution
In the football data there was some reason to use a mixed distribution in the football data (ref) so I tried doing that. It was more difficult than I expected. Not only is a mixture of distributions fairly difficult, also the system was over parameteri...
Putting a football model into JAGS
In this post the football model is programmed into JAGS. There are all the reasons to do so. Jags 3.3 is recently released, I was stimulated by Gianluca's post . Obviously I could copy the model in his paper, but that would be too easy a...
Footbal ordinal model: examination and predictions
In the previous entry an ordinal model for football games was developed. It is now time to look a bit better at the model and use it. This means three sections; A look at likelihood and link function, a model interpretation part, which focuse...
Football, an ordinal model
On September 19th, flo2speak remarked under a post that his/her experience is that ordinal models had better performance. That seems reason enough to try, so there we are. In examining this type of model it is found that more complex models can be...
Zero Inflated Models and Generalized Linear Mixed Models with R.
Zuur, Saveliev, Ieno (2012).
