Blog Archives

Slouching towards simulating investment skill

April 29, 2013
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Slouching towards simulating investment skill

When investment skill is simulated, it is often presented as if it is obvious how to do it.  Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think it’s obvious. Previously In “Simple tests of predicted returns” we saw that prediction quality need not look like what you would find in a textbook.  For example, there was a … Continue reading...

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garch and the distribution of returns

April 22, 2013
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garch and the distribution of returns

Using garch to learn a little about the distribution of returns. Previously There are posts on garch — in particular: A practical introduction to garch modeling The components garch model in the rugarch package garch and long tails There has also been discussion of the distribution of returns, including a satire called “The distribution of … Continue reading...

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Stock-picking opportunity and the ratio of variabilities

April 15, 2013
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Stock-picking opportunity and the ratio of variabilities

How good is the current opportunity to pick stocks relative to the past? Idea The more stocks act differently from each other relative to how volatile they are, the more opportunity there is to benefit by selecting stocks.  This post looks at a particular way of investigating that idea. Data Daily (log) returns of 442 … Continue reading...

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A pictorial history of US large cap correlation

April 1, 2013
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A pictorial history of US large cap correlation

How has the distribution of correlations changed over the last several years? Previously Posts about correlation boxplots explained Data Daily returns of 443 large cap US stocks from 2004 through 2012 were used.  The sample correlations — almost 98,000 of them — during each year were created. If we were actually using the correlations, then … Continue reading...

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Variability of garch predictions

March 17, 2013
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Variability of garch predictions

How variable are garch predictions? Previously There have been several posts on garch, in particular: A practical introduction to garch modeling The components garch model in the rugarch package Both of these posts speak about the two common prediction targets: prediction (of volatility) at the individual times (usually days) term structure prediction — the average … Continue reading...

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Upcoming events

March 14, 2013
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Upcoming events

Highlighted LondonR is soon — see the “Previously Announced” section. New Events Thirsty Quants 2013 March 21, London. Some thirsty quants will be going for a drink on the 21st of March as of 18.30 at the Lamb Tavern in Leadenhall Market. http://www.lambtavernleadenhall.com/ Rethinking the Economics of Pensions 2013 March 21 & 22 in London. … Continue reading...

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Predicted correlations and portfolio optimization

March 5, 2013
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Predicted correlations and portfolio optimization

What effect do predicted correlations have when optimizing trades? Background A concern about optimization that is not one of “The top 7 portfolio optimization problems” is that correlations spike during a crisis which is when you most want optimization to work. This post looks at a small piece of that question.  It wonders if increasing predicted … Continue reading...

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Portfolio tests of predicted returns

February 25, 2013
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Portfolio tests of predicted returns

Exploring the quality of predictions using random portfolios and optimization. Previously “Simple tests of predicted returns” showed a few ways to look at expected returns at the asset level.  Here we move to the portfolio level. The previous post focused on correlation.  Win Vector Blog points out that gauging prediction quality using correlation can be … Continue reading...

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Simple tests of predicted returns

February 18, 2013
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Simple tests of predicted returns

Some ways to explore how good a method of predicting returns is. Data and model The universe is 443 large cap US stocks that have data back to the beginning of 2004.  The daily (adjusted) close was used. The model that is used as an example is the default signal from the MACD function of … Continue reading...

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R for finance and other upcoming events

February 12, 2013
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R for finance and other upcoming events

Featured R for Finance Workshop 2013 March 5-6 in London. The target audience are professionals and academics, who wish to learn the basics of the statistical software R and its use in Finance. The workshop is led by Ron Hochreiter, Pat Burns and Michael Sun. Details are on the Unicom website.  Please reference Burns Statistics … Continue reading...

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