Blog Archives

New Favorite Test of US Monetary Policy Limits

April 20, 2011
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New Favorite Test of US Monetary Policy Limits

After a little additional thought, I discovered that my Death Spiral Warning Graph post can be improved through the isolation of the expected inflation component of US 10y yields provided by the US 10y yield – US 10y TIP yield.  Unfortunately, i...

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Barron’s Spring 2008 Big Money Poll

April 19, 2011
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Barron’s Spring 2008 Big Money Poll

Barron's April 28, 2008, Cover Story "Back in the Pool" offers a great hindsight look at our wonderful foresight: “AND NOW, FOR SOME GOOD NEWS: THE OTHER SHOE isn't going to drop. After a winter of discontent marked by massive write-offs on Wall Str...

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Historical Sources of Bond Returns-Comparison of Daily to Monthly

April 17, 2011
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Historical Sources of Bond Returns-Comparison of Daily to Monthly

Thanks so much for the comment on my last post Historical Bond Price and Total Returns from 10y Yield Series “I know this might sound antithetical to a bond guy, but won't the monthly series get you close enough? “ which proved me wrong and allow...

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Historical Bond Price and Total Returns from 10y Yield Series

April 15, 2011
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Historical Bond Price and Total Returns from 10y Yield Series

Without access to Barclays or Merrill Bond Indicies to the 1970s or Ned Davis to 1950, studying historical bond returns is very difficult.  Here is a way to derive price and total returns on the 10 year US Treasury back to 1962.  I would like...

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Historical Sources of Bond Returns with Shiller Data 1919-2011

April 11, 2011
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Historical Sources of Bond Returns with Shiller Data 1919-2011

And as usual, I always want a longer data set, so after a little playing with R-Excel, we can extend our historical sources of bond returns to 1919.  If nothing else, maybe you can find other uses for the Shiller Dataset in R. From TimelyPort...

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Historical Sources of Bond Returns

April 11, 2011
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Historical Sources of Bond Returns

As promised in Monitoring Sources of Bond Return, we can show more history if we use CPI instead of expected inflation (from the TIP inflation breakeven yield).  Here are the results with history back to 1953. From TimelyPortfolio However, mo...

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Monitoring Sources of Bond Return

April 8, 2011
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Monitoring Sources of Bond Return

Here is a way to monitor bond return sources in R.  In the next iteration, I will use CPI to add history to the series. From TimelyPortfolio So right now, you can expect about a 5% return from bonds.  How much of that is real return is u...

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Bond Market as a Casino Game Part 2

April 6, 2011
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Bond Market as a Casino Game Part 2

Before starting Part 2, please see Bonds as a Casino Game Part 1.   For the Monte Carlo random simulation purists, please ignore some unimportant technicalities in my simulation. To spoil the fun, here is the conclusion: Any way you look at ...

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Bond Market as a Casino Game Part 1

April 1, 2011
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Bond Market as a Casino Game Part 1

With this post, I am doing something I try very hard to avoid, especially when communicating to my clients, and that is blurring the line between investing and gambling.  But after reading all of Reuven Brenner’s books and finishing Ralph Vince ...

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Long EEM Short IWM-How it Works in 3 Ways

March 31, 2011
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Long EEM Short IWM-How it Works in 3 Ways

Long EEM Short IWM potentially works in 3 ways: 1) See my last post “Asian Currency Opportunity” where currency undervaluation means potential gain of 20-50% versus the US$ and 50%-100% versus the Japanese Yen.  However, even absent the underv...

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