Blog Archives

Another Use of LSPM in Tactical Portfolio Allocation

April 29, 2011
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Another Use of LSPM in Tactical Portfolio Allocation

After the slightly unconventional use of LSPM presented in Slightly Different Use of Ralph Vince’s Leverage Space Trading Model, I thought I should follow up with something that more closely resembles my interpretation of Ralph Vince’s book. LSPM s...

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Slightly Different Use of Ralph Vince’s Leverage Space Trading Model

April 28, 2011
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Slightly Different Use of Ralph Vince’s Leverage Space Trading Model

In honor of the press release Dow Jones Indexes To Develop, Co-Brand Index Family With LSP Partners two days ago, I thought I would show another slightly different use of Ralph Vince’s The Leverage Space Trading Model. Using the R LSPM package, we c...

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Great FAJ Article on Statistical Measure of Financial Turbulence Part 3

April 26, 2011
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Great FAJ Article on Statistical Measure of Financial Turbulence Part 3

Building on posts Great FAJ Article on Statistical Measure of Financial Turbulence and Great FAJ Article on Statistical Measure of Financial Turbulence Part 2, I will now build a system incorporating a new correlation-based measure of turbulence and a ...

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Great FAJ Article on Statistical Measure of Financial Turbulence Part 2

April 26, 2011
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Great FAJ Article on Statistical Measure of Financial Turbulence Part 2

I did not intend for this to be a multi-part series, but after some clear thinking at the beach over the weekend, I decided that it needed some more analysis.  For those of you that read the article or know Mahalanobis distance, the measure I pre...

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Great FAJ Article on Statistical Measure of Financial Turbulence

April 21, 2011
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Great FAJ Article on Statistical Measure of Financial Turbulence

I particularly liked this well-written paper, since unlike most academic research, I was able to understand it, replicate it, and incorporate it.  I know that the Financial Analyst Journal is not considered by the academic community as a top-ti...

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New Favorite Test of US Monetary Policy Limits

April 20, 2011
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New Favorite Test of US Monetary Policy Limits

After a little additional thought, I discovered that my Death Spiral Warning Graph post can be improved through the isolation of the expected inflation component of US 10y yields provided by the US 10y yield – US 10y TIP yield.  Unfortunately, i...

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Barron’s Spring 2008 Big Money Poll

April 19, 2011
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Barron’s Spring 2008 Big Money Poll

Barron's April 28, 2008, Cover Story "Back in the Pool" offers a great hindsight look at our wonderful foresight: “AND NOW, FOR SOME GOOD NEWS: THE OTHER SHOE isn't going to drop. After a winter of discontent marked by massive write-offs on Wall Str...

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Historical Sources of Bond Returns-Comparison of Daily to Monthly

April 17, 2011
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Historical Sources of Bond Returns-Comparison of Daily to Monthly

Thanks so much for the comment on my last post Historical Bond Price and Total Returns from 10y Yield Series “I know this might sound antithetical to a bond guy, but won't the monthly series get you close enough? “ which proved me wrong and allow...

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Historical Bond Price and Total Returns from 10y Yield Series

April 15, 2011
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Historical Bond Price and Total Returns from 10y Yield Series

Without access to Barclays or Merrill Bond Indicies to the 1970s or Ned Davis to 1950, studying historical bond returns is very difficult.  Here is a way to derive price and total returns on the 10 year US Treasury back to 1962.  I would like...

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Historical Sources of Bond Returns with Shiller Data 1919-2011

April 11, 2011
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Historical Sources of Bond Returns with Shiller Data 1919-2011

And as usual, I always want a longer data set, so after a little playing with R-Excel, we can extend our historical sources of bond returns to 1919.  If nothing else, maybe you can find other uses for the Shiller Dataset in R. From TimelyPort...

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