Blog Archives

ttrTests Experimentation

August 16, 2011
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ttrTests Experimentation

I was intrigued by the CRAN update on a package ttrTests, especially since quantstrat is not built for backtesting system parameters and analyzing system performance as I mentioned in A Quantstrat to Build On Part 6.  ttrTests offers a nice start ...

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lm System on Nikkei with New Chart

August 15, 2011
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lm System on Nikkei with New Chart

I got a great idea from the zoo-overplot demo to make a very helpful visualization of system entry and exit.  Since the lm-based system presented in Unrequited lm Love is newest, I will use this system, but apply to the Nikkei 225 instead of the R...

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Unrequited lm Love

August 14, 2011
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Unrequited lm Love

In System Failure-Maybe it Will Help I presented the initial trials of a linear model system for stocks, and even though they were not a resounding success, I have been strangely determined to discover a working version of this framework.  Maybe t...

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System Failure-Maybe it Will Help

August 11, 2011
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System Failure-Maybe it Will Help

I hope everyone is enjoying the market.  After a crazy week personally and 6% intraday swings, I remember why I abandoned day trading. I often wonder if I should share ideas that do not work as well as I would like.  In this case, I know I ha...

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Dividend Quartiles with Kenneth French Data

August 1, 2011
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Dividend Quartiles with Kenneth French Data

Based on my perception of the last 3 years, I would have expected high dividend stocks to have substantially underperformed low and zero dividend stocks.  Fortunately, just like with size and momentum in Beating Kenneth French Small – High, we c...

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Join the Reserves

July 27, 2011
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Join the Reserves

Most forget that the tremendous macro imbalances caused by the 10 Trillion in foreign reserves are just 14 years old phenomenon but the results have been and will be profound.  The buying started after the Asia Pacific collapse of 1997, and the As...

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Crazy RUT

July 24, 2011
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Crazy RUT

I have noticed that the Russell 2000 (RUT) acts very differently from most of the other indexes that I have studied.  If we apply the system shown in Shorting Mebane Faber to RUT and then extend it with a simple slope, we notice something very dif...

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Shorting Mebane Faber

July 19, 2011
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Shorting Mebane Faber

Although I do not personally know Mebane Faber, I know enough that I do not want to short him. However, I thought it would be insightful to see how the short side of his “A Quantitative Approach To Tactical Asset Allocation” might look.  Once ...

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More Thoughts on US Death Spiral

July 13, 2011
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More Thoughts on US Death Spiral

What troubles me most about today’s environment is the persistent belief that crisis large or small results in a US dollar rally and lower Treasury rates. However, what happens if the US dollar and US Treasury rates are the source of the crisis? Then...

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Drawdown Control Can Also Determine Ending Wealth

July 11, 2011
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Drawdown Control Can Also Determine Ending Wealth

As an extension to yesterday’s post Just Arriving is Not Enough, I wanted to show how minimizing drawdown is a much better technique to help control comfort and potentially increase ending wealth.  CHTTX was one of the best performers of the fou...

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