Blog Archives

Overdispersion with different exposures

February 1, 2013
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Overdispersion with different exposures

In actuarial science, and insurance ratemaking, taking into account the exposure can be a nightmare (in datasets, some clients have been here for a few years – we call that exposure – while others have been here for a few months, or weeks). Somehow, simple results because more complicated to compute just because we have to take into account...

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Regression on categorical variables

January 30, 2013
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Regression on categorical variables

This morning, Stéphane asked me tricky question about extracting coefficients from a regression with categorical explanatory variates. More precisely, he asked me if it was possible to store the coefficients in a nice table, with information on the variable and the modality (those two information being in two different columns). Here is some code I did to produce the...

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The law of small numbers

January 28, 2013
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The law of small numbers

In insurance, the law of large numbers (named loi des grands nombres initially by Siméon Poisson, see e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/…) is usually mentioned to legitimate large portfolios, because of pooling and diversification: the larger the pool, the more ‘predictable’ the losses will be (in a given period). Of course, under standard statistical assumption, namely finite expected value, and independence (see http://freakonometrics.blog.free.fr/…....

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Regression tree using Gini’s index

January 27, 2013
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Regression tree using Gini’s index

In order to illustrate the construction of regression tree (using the CART methodology), consider the following simulated dataset, > set.seed(1) > n=200 > X1=runif(n) > X2=runif(n) > P=.8*(X1<.3)*(X2<.5)+ + .2*(X1<.3)*(X2>.5)+ + .8*(X1>.3)*(X1<.85)*(X2<.3)+ + .2*(X1>.3)*(X1<.85)*(X2>.3)+ + .8*(X1>.85)*(X2<.7)+ + .2*(X1>.85)*(X2>.7) > Y=rbinom(n,size=1,P) > B=data.frame(Y,X1,X2) with one dichotomos varible (the variable of interest, ), and two continuous ones (the explanatory ones  and ). > tail(B) Y...

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R for actuarial science

January 10, 2013
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R for actuarial science

As mentioned in the Appendix of Modern Actuarial Risk Theory, “R (and S) is the ‘lingua franca’ of data analysis and statistical computing, used in academia, climate research, computer science, bioinformatics, pharmaceutical industry, customer analytics, data mining, finance and by some insurers. Apart from being stable, fast, always up-to-date and very versatile, the chief advantage of R is that...

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UEFA, is that it ?

December 29, 2012
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UEFA, is that it ?

Following my previous post, a few more things. As mentioned by Frédéric, it is – indeed – possible to compute the probability of all pairs. More precisely, all pairs are not as likely to occur: some teams can play against (almost) eveyone, while others cannot. From the previous table, it is possible to compute probability that the last team plays...

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UEFA, what were the odds ?

December 27, 2012
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UEFA, what were the odds ?

Ok, I was supposed to take a break, but Frédéric, professor in Tours, came back to me this morning with a tickling question. He asked me what were the odds that the Champions League draw produces exactly the same pairings from the practice draw, and the official one (see e.g. dailymail.co.uk/…). To be honest, I don’t know much about soccer, so...

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On Box-Cox transform in regression models

November 13, 2012
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On Box-Cox transform in regression models

A few days ago, a former student of mine, David, contacted me about Box-Cox tests in linear models. It made me look more carefully at the test, and I do not understand what is computed, to be honest. Let us start with something simple, like a linea...

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Why pictures are so important when modeling data?

October 31, 2012
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Why pictures are so important when modeling data?

(bis repetita) Consider the following regression summary,Call: lm(formula = y1 ~ x1)   Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 3.0001 1.1247 2.667 0.02573 * x1 0.5001 0.1179 4.241 0.00217 **...

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Fractals and Kronecker product

October 17, 2012
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Fractals and Kronecker product

A few years ago, I went to listen to Roger Nelsen who was giving a talk about copulas with fractal support. Roger is amazing when he gives a talk (I am also a huge fan of his books, and articles), and I really wanted to play with that concept ...

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