Time series cross-validation 5

January 24, 2013

(This article was first published on Modern Toolmaking, and kindly contributed to R-bloggers)

The caret package for R now supports time series cross-validation!  (Look for version 5.15-052 in the news file).  You can use the createTimeSlices function to do time-series cross-validation with a fixed window, as well as a growing window.  This function generates a list of indexes for the training set, as well as a list of indexes for the test set, which you can then pass to the `trainControl` object.

Caret does not currently support univariate time series models (like `arima`, `auto.arima` and `ets`), but perhaps that functionality is coming in the future?  I’d also love to see someone write a I’d also love to see someone write a `timeSeriesSummary` function for caret that calculates error at each horizon in the test set and a createTimeResamples function, perhaps using the Maximum Entropy Bootstrap.

Here’s a quick demo of how you might use this new functionality:

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