Long XLU Short SPY Part 2 (More History)

May 20, 2011 | klr

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.  YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR OWN GAINS AND LOSSES. The Fed is on a roll adding BAC ML Bond Indicies and now complete history for the four primary Dow Jones Indexes, so I wanted to extend my first post Long XLU Shor...
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Spreads and Stress

May 20, 2011 | klr

Since we have the Gifts from BAC ML and the Federal Reserve, I thought I should look at another interesting element of bonds.  Bond spreads act as a very strong symbol of financial stability and confidence.  The St. Louis Fed Stress Index is ...
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Gifts from BAC ML and the Federal Reserve

May 17, 2011 | klr

Bank of America Merrill Lynch and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fed continue to surprise me with even more gifts.  This time they added Emerging Market Bond Indexes with history back to 1998 (cannot see Asia Pacific Crisis of 1997-1998 but...
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CPI and US 10y Treasury Extreme –> System Idea

May 3, 2011 | klr

When I see extremes, I feel compelled to explore. The US 10y Treasury yield is at an extreme versus the annualized 3 month CPI rate of change. From TimelyPortfolio Of course, I have to try to build a system around the idea.  While this 3 mont...
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Another Use of LSPM in Tactical Portfolio Allocation

April 29, 2011 | klr

After the slightly unconventional use of LSPM presented in Slightly Different Use of Ralph Vince’s Leverage Space Trading Model, I thought I should follow up with something that more closely resembles my interpretation of Ralph Vince’s book. LSPM s...
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New Favorite Test of US Monetary Policy Limits

April 20, 2011 | klr

After a little additional thought, I discovered that my Death Spiral Warning Graph post can be improved through the isolation of the expected inflation component of US 10y yields provided by the US 10y yield – US 10y TIP yield.  Unfortunately, i...
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Historical Sources of Bond Returns

April 11, 2011 | klr

As promised in Monitoring Sources of Bond Return, we can show more history if we use CPI instead of expected inflation (from the TIP inflation breakeven yield).  Here are the results with history back to 1953. From TimelyPortfolio However, mo...
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Monitoring Sources of Bond Return

April 8, 2011 | klr

Here is a way to monitor bond return sources in R.  In the next iteration, I will use CPI to add history to the series. From TimelyPortfolio So right now, you can expect about a 5% return from bonds.  How much of that is real return is u...
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Bond Market as a Casino Game Part 2

April 6, 2011 | klr

Before starting Part 2, please see Bonds as a Casino Game Part 1.   For the Monte Carlo random simulation purists, please ignore some unimportant technicalities in my simulation. To spoil the fun, here is the conclusion: Any way you look at ...
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