NYT’s 4th Down Bot gives the SuperBowl edge to the Broncos

January 29, 2014

(This article was first published on Revolutions, and kindly contributed to R-bloggers)

Who will win the SuperBowl this Sunday: Seattle or Denver? As pundits around the country weigh in with their predictions, you might want to check out the analysis from the New York Times' 4th Down Bot, which compares the coaches' calls on fourth down plays with what historical statistics and a point-forecasting model indicate would have been the ideal play.

According to the Bot, the Seahawks made of 6 of 8 4th down calls correctly in their championship-winning game (one of those was "complicated" according to the Bot, so let's give it to Seattle). In the Bronco's championship game, Denver made 5 of 6 calls correctly. So at least according to the Bot, Denver has the edge over Seattle in 4th down calls. (I'm going to get run out of Seattle for saying that!)

As you're watching the game on Sunday, you can see the Bots calls in real-time on Twitter (follow NYT4thDownBot), and see if you agree with the model or with the coaches calls.

By the way, the New York Times makes extensive use of R in its sports analysis, from fantasy football to draft picks to baseball.

New York Times: 4th Down Bot

To leave a comment for the author, please follow the link and comment on their blog: Revolutions.

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