# Natural Gas Prices Fall 42% in 3 Months Following Breach of ‘Nonlinear Stealth Support’

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The below earlier LinkedIn post of well-defined nonlinear

**Stealth Support**indicated price evolution for natural gas (UNG) was highly

likely on an unsustainable trajectory.

Within a month of the post, the market breached its well-defined

**Stealth Support Curve**. In the 3 months that followed, this market lost 42% of its value.

The following R code reproduces the below

**Stealth Curve**.

**UNG Stealth Curve – R Code**

library(tidyverse) library(readxl) # Original data source - https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/funds-and-etfs/ung/historical # Download reformatted data (columns/headings) from my github site and save to a local drive # https://github.com/123blee/Stealth_Curves.io/blob/main/UNG_prices.xlsx ung <- read_excel("... Insert your local file path here .../UNG_prices.xlsx") ung # Convert 'Date and Time' to 'Date' column ung[["Date"]] <- as.Date(ung[["Date"]]) ung bars <- nrow(ung) # Add bar indicator as first tibble column ung <- ung %>% add_column(t = 1:nrow(ung), .before = "Date") ung # Add 40 future days to the tibble for projection of the Stealth Curve once added future <- 40 ung <- ung %>% add_row(t = (bars+1):(bars+future)) # Market Pivot Lows using 'Low' Prices # Chart 'Low' UNG prices xmin <- 2250 xmax <- bars + future ymin <- 0 ymax <- 25 plot.new() background <- c("azure1") chart_title_low <- c("Natural Gas (UNG) \nDaily Low Prices ($)") u <- par("usr") rect(u[1], u[3], u[2], u[4], col = background) par(ann=TRUE) par(new=TRUE) t <- ung[["t"]] Price <- ung[["Low"]] plot(x=t, y=Price, main = chart_title_low, type="l", col = "blue", ylim = c(ymin, ymax) , xlim = c(xmin, xmax ) ) # Add Stealth Curve to tibble # Stealth Support Curve parameters a <- -444.56 b <- 6.26 c <- -2555.01 ung <- ung %>% mutate(Stealth_Curve_Low = a/(t + c) + b) ung # Omit certain Stealth Support Curve values from charting ung[["Stealth_Curve_Low"]][2550:xmax] <- NA ung # Add Stealth Curve to chart lines(t, ung[["Stealth_Curve_Low"]])Details of

**Stealth Curve**parameterization are detailed in my ‘

**Stealth Curves: The Elegance of Random Markets**’ text on Amazon.

**Brian K. Lee, MBA, PRM, CMA, CFA**

Feel free to contact me on

Natural Gas Prices Fall 42% in 3 Months Following Breach of ‘Nonlinear Stealth Support’ was first posted on January 3, 2022 at 7:49 pm.

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