I’ve been interviewed twice in the last year:For DecisionStats, 9 August 2012. For Data Mining Research, 21 October 2011. Republished in Amstat News, 1 December 2011.Some readers of this blog might find them interesting. I said a few things in t...

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I’ve been interviewed twice in the last year:For DecisionStats, 9 August 2012. For Data Mining Research, 21 October 2011. Republished in Amstat News, 1 December 2011.Some readers of this blog might find them interesting. I said a few things in t...

Forecasting sporting events is a growing research area. The International Journal of Forecasting even had a special issue on sports forecasting a couple of years ago. The London 2012 Olympics has attracted a few forecasters trying to predict medal counts, world records, etc. Here are some of the articles I’ve seen. Which Olympic records get shattered?, Nate Silver, New...

The Time Series Data Library is a collection of about 800 time series that I have maintained since about 1992, and hosted on my personal website. It includes data from a lot of time series textbooks, as well as many other series that I’ve either collected for student projects or helpful people have sent to me. I’ve now moved...

This post is from my new book Forecasting: principles and practice, available freely online at OTexts.com/fpp/. A non-seasonal ARIMA model can be written as (1) or equivalently as (2) where is the backshift operator, and is the mean of . R uses the parametrization of equation (2). Thus, the inclusion of a constant in a non-stationary ARIMA...

After years of saying that I was going to write a book to replace Makridakis, Wheelwright and Hyndman (1998), I’m finally ready to make an announcement! My new book is Forecasting: principles and practice, co-authored with George Athanasopoulos. It is available online and free-of-charge. We have written about 2/3 of the book so far (all of which is already...

A very useful way of keeping up with blogs in a particular area is to subscribe to a blog aggregator. These will syndicate posts from a large number of blogs and provide links back to the original sources. So you only need to subscribe once to get all the good stuff in that area. There are now several blog...

A few years ago, I was working on a project where we measured various characteristics of a time series and used the information to determine what forecasting method to apply or how to cluster the time series into meaningful groups. The two main papers to come out of that project were: Wang, Smith and Hyndman (2006) Characteristic-based clustering for...

The forecast package uses the base R graphics for all plots, but some people may prefer to use the nice graphics available using the ggplot2 package. In the following two posts, Frank Davenport shows how it can be done:Plotting forecast() objects in ...

I have thought quite a lot about including regressors (i.e. covariates) in exponential smoothing (ETS) models, and I have done it a couple of times in my published work. See my 2008 exponential smoothing book (chapter 9) and my 2008 Tourism Management paper. However, there are some theoretical issues with these approaches, which have come to light through the research of...

I received the following email today: I am preparing a thesis … I need to conduct the widest possible poll, and it occurred to me that perhaps you could guide me toward an internet-based way in which this can be done easily. I have a ten-question questionnaire prepared, that I wish to have an random sample of the population...