Sugar price seasonality

February 16, 2010

(This article was first published on Quantitative thoughts » EN, and kindly contributed to R-bloggers)

Recently, Orion securities have issued a “BUY” recomendation for Cugar ETF. Because, neither I follow the recommendations nor I’m big fan of TA (I have to admit, that I was…), I decided to check sugar price seasonality.

Voila, the mean of monthly returns are presented in the graph. February, April and May tend to be negative and June and July show positive returns.
BUT! Don’t forget to ask – are these results significant? P-value for July is 14%, 34% for April. The rest is above 50%. So, keep in mind, that these results are very weak…


More descriptive plot:


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