Exploratory Data Analysis: Will PCE Data Push Bitcoin?

Could the latest PCE data catalyze Bitcoin to surge beyond major resistance and reach $70K? The last time that US PCE Price Index values were under the estimates (miss), BTC prices rocketed.

Source code:

library(tidyverse)
library(tidyquant)
library(timetk)

#U.S. PCE Price Index YoY
df_pce_yoy <- 
  read.delim("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mesdi/investingcom/refs/heads/main/us_pce_yoy.txt") %>% 
  as_tibble() %>% 
  janitor::clean_names() %>% 
  rename(date = release_date) %>% 
  #removing parentheses and the text within
  mutate(date = case_when(str_detect(date," \\(.*\\)") ~ str_remove(date," \\(.*\\)"),
                          TRUE ~ date)) %>% 
  mutate(date = parse_date(date, "%b %d, %Y"),
         actual = str_remove(actual, "%") %>% as.numeric(),
         forecast = str_remove(forecast, "%") %>% as.numeric()) %>% 
  mutate(date = floor_date(date, "month") %m+% months(1),
         type = case_when(
           actual > forecast ~ "Beat",
           actual < forecast ~ "Miss",
           actual == forecast ~ "In Line"
         )) %>% 
  select(date, type) %>% 
  drop_na()


#Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD)
df_bitcoin <- 
  tq_get("BTC-USD") %>% 
  tq_transmute(select = "close",
               mutate_fun = to.monthly,
               col_rename = "btc") %>% 
  mutate(date = as.Date(date))

#Merging the datasets
df_merged <- 
  df_pce_yoy %>% 
  left_join(df_bitcoin) %>% 
  drop_na()


#Plot
df_merged %>% 
  ggplot(aes(date, 
             btc, 
             color = type)) +
  geom_line(aes(group = 1), size =2) +
  geom_point(size = 5) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 70000, 
             size = 1.5, 
             color = "red", 
             linetype = "dashed") +
  scale_x_date(expand = expansion(mult = c(.1, .1)),
               labels = scales::label_date("%Y %b"),
               breaks = c(make_date(2023,10,1),
                          make_date(2024,1,1),
                          make_date(2024,9,1))) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::label_dollar()) +
  scale_color_manual(values = c("In Line" = "darkgrey",
                                "Beat" = "indianred",
                                "Miss" = "darkgreen")) +
  labs(x= "",
       y ="", 
       color = "Core PCE Estimates",
       title = "Bitcoin USD (Monthly)",
       subtitle = "In the case of the (YoY) PCE values <span style = 'color:indianred;'><br>beat</span>, <span style = 'color:darkgreen;'>miss,</span> or <span style = 'color:darkgrey;'>in line</span> with the estimates") +
  theme_minimal(base_size = 20,
                base_family = "Bricolage Grotesque") +
  theme(panel.grid = element_blank(),
        legend.position = "none",
        plot.title = element_text(face = "bold"),
        plot.subtitle = ggtext::element_markdown(face = "bold"),
        axis.text = element_text(face = "bold"),
        plot.background = element_rect(fill = "ghostwhite", 
                                       color = "ghostwhite"),
        panel.background = element_rect(fill = "azure", 
                                        color = "azure"))