Site icon R-bloggers

Forecast Hungarian higher education data in R

[This article was first published on R – MYHAPPYDATA BLOG, and kindly contributed to R-bloggers]. (You can report issue about the content on this page here)
Want to share your content on R-bloggers? click here if you have a blog, or here if you don't.

I had to forecast the further number of enrolled students in the Hungarian higher education sphere. I did the whole job in R of course.

In Hungary the most important higher education statistics are published in each year so You can easily access to the data here. I chose the most typical group of students who enrolled directly after secondary education.
I wanted to use just a simple method, so I chose Holt’s Exponential Smoothing (here is a basic description of how forecast in R btw), I recommend to use package forecast in similar cases.

The output is a GIF animation which was made with the package gganimate:

The forecast is quite OK according to correlogram and Ljung-Box test but because of the small number of observation the assumption of normal distribution of forecast errors does not seems to be met completely.

According to the results it is likely to be a decrease which is a sad fact because based on the most tertiary education statistics Hungary has already performed worst than the OECD average.

To leave a comment for the author, please follow the link and comment on their blog: R – MYHAPPYDATA BLOG.

R-bloggers.com offers daily e-mail updates about R news and tutorials about learning R and many other topics. Click here if you're looking to post or find an R/data-science job.
Want to share your content on R-bloggers? click here if you have a blog, or here if you don't.