Posts Tagged ‘ rstats ’

Is it that stupid to make extremely long term forecast when studying mortality ?

December 14, 2010
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Is it that stupid to make extremely long term forecast when studying mortality ?

I received recently a comment by FCA (here) who raised an important question, about forecast in dynamic mortality models. (S)he mentioned that from his(her) point of view, the econometric models I considered were "good to predict for the next, say,...

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Finding roots of functions in actuarial science

December 7, 2010
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Finding roots of functions in actuarial science

The following simple code can be used to find roots of functions (based on the secant algorithm), secant=function(fun, x0, x1, tolerence=1e-07, niter=500){for ( i in 1:niter ) { x2 <- x1-fun(x1)*(x1-x0)/(fun(x1)-fun(x0)) if (abs(fun(x2)) < to...

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Statistique de l’assurance STT6705V, partie 12 bis

December 7, 2010
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Statistique de l’assurance STT6705V, partie 12 bis

In the previous post (here) discussing forecasts of actuarial quantities, I did not mention much how to forecast the temporal component in the Lee-Carter model. Actually, many things can be done. Consider here some exponential smoothing techniques ...

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Statistique de l’assurance STT6705V, partie 12

December 2, 2010
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Statistique de l’assurance STT6705V, partie 12

The final course (since courses end this week in Montréal) can be watched here and there. The drawings from the course can be downloaded here (including last week's). First, to come back on last week's course , we considered Lee-carter model, i.e....

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Statistique de l’assurance STT6705V, partie 11

November 29, 2010
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Statistique de l’assurance STT6705V, partie 11

Last course will be uploaded soon (the links will be here and there). The R code considered is given below. First, we had to work a little bit on the datasets, tabB=read.table("http://perso.univ-rennes1.fr/arthur.charpentier/tabB.csv", sep=";",head...

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Generating a quasi Poisson distribution, version 2

November 10, 2010
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Generating a quasi Poisson distribution, version 2

Here and there, I mentioned two codes to generated quasiPoisson random variables. And in both of them, the negative binomial approximation seems to be wrong. Recall that the negative binomial distribution is where and in R, a negative binomial di...

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Updating meteorological forecasts, part 1

November 7, 2010
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Updating meteorological forecasts, part 1

As Mark Twain said "the art of prophecy is very difficult, especially about the future" (well, actually I am not sure Mark Twain was the  first one to say so, but if you're interested by that sentence, you can look here). I have been rather su...

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Comments on probabilities

November 2, 2010
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Comments on probabilities

The only thing I remember from courses I had in probability a few years ago is that we also have to clearly defined the event we want to calculate the probability. On the Freakonomics blog, last week, the Israeli lottery was mentioned (here, see a...

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Names of villages, in France

November 2, 2010
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Names of villages, in France

Keith Briggs published a post here on names of English place name element distribution, which contains almost twenty maps like the one where names ends by -bourn,bourne,burn (here) or -head (there). Actually, it is possible (Robin mentioned that a...

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A million ? what are the odds…

October 27, 2010
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A million ? what are the odds…

50 days ago, I published a post, here, on forecasting techniques. I was wondering what could be the probability to have, by the end of this year, one million pages viewed (from Google Analytics) on this blog. Well, initially, it was on my blog at t...

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