Posts Tagged ‘ R Language ’

4 and a half myths about beta in finance

February 8, 2011
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4 and a half myths about beta in finance

Much of what has been said and thought about beta in finance is untrue. Myth 1: beta is about volatility This myth is pervasive. Beta is associated with the stock’s volatility but there is more involved.  Beta is the ratio of the volatility of the stock to the volatility of the market times the correlation … Continue reading...

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Review of “R Graphs Cookbook” by Hrishi Mittal

January 24, 2011
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Review of “R Graphs Cookbook” by Hrishi Mittal

Executive summary: Extremely useful for new users, informative to even quite seasoned users. Refereeing Once upon a time a publisher asked if I would referee a book (unspecified) about R.  In an instance that can only be described as psychotic I said yes.  That bit of insanity turned out to be a good thing. I … Continue reading...

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Paying interest and the number e

January 24, 2011
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Paying interest and the number e

Suppose I borrow a dollar from you and I’ll pay you 100% interest at the end of the year.  How much money will you have then? $1 * (1 + 1) = $2 What happens if instead the interest is calculated as  50% twice in the year? $1 * (1.5 * 1.5) = $2.25 After … Continue reading...

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Interesting volatility measurement, part 2

January 21, 2011
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Interesting volatility measurement, part 2

A few weeks ago I have mentioned about an interesting volatility prediction. It is based on two periods of historical volatility (standard deviation). The remaining question was – does it really works? I could not give the answer, because I didn’t have VIX futures data at that time. Later on, I was contacted by Brian

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Normal market accidents

January 17, 2011
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Normal market accidents

We think of accidents as abnormal events, but there is “normal accident” theory.  We don’t think of accidents happening in markets, but they do.  That’s why it’s called a market crash. For normal accidents to come into play, two conditions need to hold: the system is complex the system is tightly coupled Certainly the financial … Continue reading...

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The number 1 novice quant mistake

January 12, 2011
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The number 1 novice quant mistake

It is ever so easy to make blunders when doing quantitative finance.  Very popular with novices is to analyze prices rather than returns. Regression on the prices When you want returns, you should understand log returns versus simple returns. Here we will be randomly generating our “returns” (with R) and we will act as if … Continue reading...

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Seasonal pair trading

January 10, 2011
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Seasonal pair trading

quanttrader.info is a good quantitative repository, where I found an idea about seasonal spreads play. The idea of seasonal pair trading differs from pairs trading in a way, that it doesn’t try to find deviation from the spread’s mean, but it looks at seasonal spread patterns. In some cases it is easier to find an

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Some market predictions

January 6, 2011
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Some market predictions

We look at a few forecasts for the year 2011 that we’ve run across, and compare them with the prediction distributions presented in Revised market prediction distributions. FTSE 100 There is a “range forecast” on an Interactive Investor page of 5350 to 6565.  It isn’t clear (to me at least) what this means, but I … Continue reading...

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Customizing the Theme of Your R HTML Help

January 4, 2011
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Customizing the Theme of Your R HTML Help

R’s default theme of the HTML help pages is too plain for me to read, but we can easily modify the theme, which is essentially a CSS file. You can find the file under: file.path(R.home('doc'), 'html', 'R.css') Simply replace this file with my version: which looks like: Of course you can design your own R.css

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Revised market prediction distributions

January 4, 2011
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Revised market prediction distributions

This provides revised plots of the prediction distributions published yesterday.  The previous plots of prediction distributions should be ignored — they are not doing as advertised. We show the prediction distribution of levels of several equity indices (plus oil price) at the end of 2011 assuming nothing happens.  That is, we’ve taken out market trends … Continue reading...

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