Forecast intervals for aggregates
[This article was first published on R on Rob J Hyndman
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A common problem is to forecast the aggregate of several time periods of data, using a model fitted to the disaggregated data. For example, you may have monthly data but wish to forecast the total for the next year. Or you may have weekly data, and want to forecast the total for the next four weeks.
If the point forecasts are means, then adding them up will give a good estimate of the total.
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