Posts Tagged ‘ stocks ’

Drawdown Visualization

August 22, 2011
By
Drawdown Visualization

Drawdown is my favorite measure of risk.  It picks up extended autocorrelated pain often not seen in risk measures, and best illustrates frustration, panic, and loss of confidence (Drawdown Control Can Also Determine Ending Wealth).  I though...

Read more »

ttrTests Experimentation

August 16, 2011
By
ttrTests Experimentation

I was intrigued by the CRAN update on a package ttrTests, especially since quantstrat is not built for backtesting system parameters and analyzing system performance as I mentioned in A Quantstrat to Build On Part 6.  ttrTests offers a nice start ...

Read more »

lm System on Nikkei with New Chart

August 15, 2011
By
lm System on Nikkei with New Chart

I got a great idea from the zoo-overplot demo to make a very helpful visualization of system entry and exit.  Since the lm-based system presented in Unrequited lm Love is newest, I will use this system, but apply to the Nikkei 225 instead of the R...

Read more »

Unrequited lm Love

August 14, 2011
By
Unrequited lm Love

In System Failure-Maybe it Will Help I presented the initial trials of a linear model system for stocks, and even though they were not a resounding success, I have been strangely determined to discover a working version of this framework.  Maybe t...

Read more »

System Failure-Maybe it Will Help

August 11, 2011
By
System Failure-Maybe it Will Help

I hope everyone is enjoying the market.  After a crazy week personally and 6% intraday swings, I remember why I abandoned day trading. I often wonder if I should share ideas that do not work as well as I would like.  In this case, I know I ha...

Read more »

Dividend Quartiles with Kenneth French Data

August 1, 2011
By
Dividend Quartiles with Kenneth French Data

Based on my perception of the last 3 years, I would have expected high dividend stocks to have substantially underperformed low and zero dividend stocks.  Fortunately, just like with size and momentum in Beating Kenneth French Small – High, we c...

Read more »

Crazy RUT

July 24, 2011
By
Crazy RUT

I have noticed that the Russell 2000 (RUT) acts very differently from most of the other indexes that I have studied.  If we apply the system shown in Shorting Mebane Faber to RUT and then extend it with a simple slope, we notice something very dif...

Read more »

Shorting Mebane Faber

July 19, 2011
By
Shorting Mebane Faber

Although I do not personally know Mebane Faber, I know enough that I do not want to short him. However, I thought it would be insightful to see how the short side of his “A Quantitative Approach To Tactical Asset Allocation” might look.  Once ...

Read more »

Drawdown Control Can Also Determine Ending Wealth

July 11, 2011
By
Drawdown Control Can Also Determine Ending Wealth

As an extension to yesterday’s post Just Arriving is Not Enough, I wanted to show how minimizing drawdown is a much better technique to help control comfort and potentially increase ending wealth.  CHTTX was one of the best performers of the fou...

Read more »

Artificial intelligence in trading: k-means clustering

July 6, 2011
By
Artificial intelligence in trading: k-means clustering

There is many flavors of artificial intelligence (AI), however I want to show practical example of the cluster analysis. It is very applicable in finance. For example, one of stylized facts of volatility is, that it moves in clusters, meaning that today’s volatility will be more likely as yesterday’s volatility. To gauge these moves you

Read more »