Posts Tagged ‘ stocks ’

Structural Breaks (Bull or Bear?)

April 26, 2012
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Structural Breaks (Bull or Bear?)

When I spotted the bfast R package, I could not resist attempting to apply it to identify bull and bear markets.  For all the details that I do not understand, please see the references: Jan Verbesselt, Rob Hyndman, Glenn Newnham, Darius Culvenor...

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Efficient Frontier of Funds and Allocation Systems

April 18, 2012
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Efficient Frontier of Funds and Allocation Systems

I did a very basic experiment in Efficient Frontier of Buy-Hold and Tactical System where I determined the efficient frontier of the S&P 500 with itself transformed by a Mebane Faber 10-month moving average tactical allocation. The result was inter...

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Opinions Not Backed by Money Updated Again

March 15, 2012
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Opinions Not Backed by Money Updated Again

Strange that I am updating this post for a third time and nothing really has changed, but the fact that nothing has changed is incredibly interesting to me.  Since it is an update, I will not duplicate the explanation, so please read the last vers...

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Stocks When Bonds are Extreme

January 12, 2012
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Stocks When Bonds are Extreme

In Extreme Bond Returns, I did not consider the context of extreme bond returns, so let’s examine annual returns for the Dow Jones Industrial Average when bonds experience extreme annual returns.  I was very surprised that stocks performed extre...

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With Size, Does Risk–>Return?

December 15, 2011
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With Size, Does Risk–>Return?

A basic tenet in finance is that higher risk should lead to higher return as the time horizon stretches to infinity.  However, in bonds, higher risk has not meant higher return with either credit risk (high-yield) or long duration risk (maturity &...

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A Tale of Two Frontiers

December 9, 2011
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A Tale of Two Frontiers

In a follow up to Evolving Domestic Frontier, I wanted to explore the efficient frontier including international indexes since 1980.  Life is great when your primary indexes (Barclays Aggregate and S&P 500) lie on the frontier as they did 1980...

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Improved Moving Average?

December 4, 2011
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Improved Moving Average?

When @quantfblog started following me on Twitter, I was delighted to discover their papers Papailias, Fotis and Thomakos, Dimitrios D., An Improved Moving Average Technical Trading Rule (September 11, 2011). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract...

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Is Drawdown the Biggest Determinant of System Success?

December 1, 2011
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Is Drawdown the Biggest Determinant of System Success?

In all my system development, I still have not been able to determine what universal underlying conditions significantly improve a system’s chances of outperforming buy-and-hold.  Also, I have found very little discussion, so maybe R with some h...

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Magical Russell 2000

November 21, 2011
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Magical Russell 2000

I have marveled at the magical Russell 2000 in Crazy RUT, but I am still surprised at its behavior through this selloff.  With a 20-day move of 30% (6% in one hour) and big outperformance to the developed and developing world, the Russell 2000 con...

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Cross Pollination from Systematic Investor

November 20, 2011
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Cross Pollination from Systematic Investor

After reading the fine article Style Analysis from Systematic Investor and What we can learn from Bill Miller and the Legg Mason Value Trust from Asymmetric Investment Returns, I thought I should combine the two in R with the FactorAnalytics package.&n...

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