1646 search results for "time series"

ARMA Models for Trading, Part VI

July 5, 2011
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ARMA Models for Trading, Part VI

All posts in this series were combined into a single, extended tutorial and posted on my new blog. In the fourth posting in this series, we saw the performance comparison between the ARMA strategy and buy-and-hold over the last approximately 10 years. Over the last few weeks (it does take time, believe me) I back-tested

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A Quantstrat to Build On Part 6

July 5, 2011
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A Quantstrat to Build On Part 6

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.  ACTING ON THIS MAY LOSE LOTS OF MONEY. In A Quantstrat to Build on Part 5, I promised some performance reporting on quantstrat portfolios, but then in REIT Momentum in Quantstrat, I discovered it is not nearly as ea...

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RcppArmadillo 0.2.25

Following a series of pre-releases, Armadillo version 2.0.0 was announced by Conrad Sanderson earlier in the week. As it happens, it contained another minor build regression so version 2.0.1 followed the next day. We created versions 0.2.24 and 0.2...

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Beating Kenneth French Small – High

June 30, 2011
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Beating Kenneth French Small – High

With 148 pageviews over the last 24 hours, my post Kenneth French Gift to the Finance World has been popular relative to most of my other posts.  I think the popularity is due to Kenneth French’s notoriety and the amazing outperformance of Small...

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Cash Might be Your Tail Risk

June 30, 2011
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Cash Might be Your Tail Risk

Just like James Montier Ode to the Joy of Cash and David Merkel Got Cash?, I think cash is an extremely powerful tool.  Of the 3 ingredients (land, labor, and capital) of the economy, capital (cash) is most scarce at the end of a crisis or recessi...

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Putting together multinomial discrete regressions by combining simple logits

June 29, 2011
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When predicting 0/1 data we can use logit (or probit or robit or some other robust model such as invlogit (0.01 + 0.98*X*beta)). Logit is simple enough and we can use bayesglm to regularize and avoid the problem of separation. What if there are more than 2 categories? If they’re ordered (1, 2, 3, etc),

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p-Values for Cointegration Tests With Breaks in the Data

June 28, 2011
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p-Values for Cointegration Tests With Breaks in the Data

In an earlier post I went through some econometrics that involved the problem of testing for multivariate cointegration in the case where there are one or more trend-breaks or level-breaks in the time-series data.  Specifically, I talked about the modified Trace tests introduced by Johansen et al. (2000), and I mentioned the really nice discussion of the application of these tests...

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RghcnV3 version 1.1

June 27, 2011
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RghcnV3 version 1.1

I’ve just uploaded version 1.1 of  the package RghcnV3 to Cran. I’ve made a few changes that should make it easier for some folks to use. First I removed the requirement for rgdal. At the present time “rgdal” is not required. On the MAC installing it can be a little trouble, but if you RTFM

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Bonds Risk and Return by Rating

June 27, 2011
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Bonds Risk and Return by Rating

As an extension to the Bond Market as a Casino Game series and Historical Sources of Bond Returns-Comparison of Daily to Monthly, I thought a ggplot of risk and return by decade and Moody’s Rating might be helpful.  Anyone who has read those oth...

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A Winking Pink Elephant

June 27, 2011
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A Winking Pink Elephant

The title of chapter 5 in my Guerrilla Capacity Planning book is, "Evaluating Scalability Parameters," and underneath it you'll see this quote:"With four parameters I can fit an elephant. With five I can make his trunk wiggle." —John von NeumannIn that vein, Guerrilla alumnus Stephen O'C. pointed me at a recent blog post and paper (PDF)...

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