616 search results for "Trading"

Trading Autocorrelation?

November 15, 2015
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Trading Autocorrelation?

Markets are very smart in absorbing and reflecting information. If you think otherwise, try making money by trading. If you are new to it, make sure you don’t bet the house. In other words, markets are efficient. At least most of the time. So then why people trade? The general believe is that there are The post

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Trading Moving Averages with Less Whipsaws

June 21, 2015
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Using a simple moving average to time markets has been a successful strategy over a very long period of time. Nothing to brag home about, but it cuts the drawdown of a buy and hold by about a half, sacrificing less than 1% of the CAGR in the process. In two words, simple yet effective. The post

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FOMC Cycle Trading Strategy in Quantstrat

March 14, 2015
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FOMC Cycle Trading Strategy in Quantstrat

Another hotly anticipated FOMC meeting kicks off next week, so I thought it would be timely to highlight a less well-known working paper, “Stock Returns over the FOMC Cycle”, by Cieslak, Morse and Vissing-Jorgensen (current draft June 2014). Its main result is:Over the last 20 years, the average excess return on stocks over Treasury bills follows a bi-weekly pattern...

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Trading The Odds Volatility Risk Premium: Addressing Data Mining and Curve-Fitting

November 19, 2014
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Trading The Odds Volatility Risk Premium: Addressing Data Mining and Curve-Fitting

Several readers, upon seeing the risk and return ratio along with other statistics in the previous post stated that the … Continue reading →

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Structural “Arbitrage”: Trading the Equity Curve

October 15, 2014
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Structural “Arbitrage”: Trading the Equity Curve

The last post demonstrated that far from being a world-beating, absolutely amazing strategy, that Harry Long’s Structural “Arbitrage”, was in … Continue reading →

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A Hammer Trading System — Demonstrating Custom Indicator-Based Limit Orders in Quantstrat

August 18, 2014
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A Hammer Trading System — Demonstrating Custom Indicator-Based Limit Orders in Quantstrat

So several weeks ago, I decided to listen on a webinar (and myself will be giving one on using quantstrat … Continue reading →

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A Simple Shiny App for Monitoring Trading Strategies – Part II

August 7, 2014
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This is a follow up on my previous post “A Simple Shiny App for Monitoring Trading Strategies“.  I added a few improvements that make the app a bit better (at least for me!). Below is the list of new features : A sample  .csv file (the one that contains the raw data) A “EndDate”  drop

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FRAMA Part III: Avoiding Countertrend Trading — A First Attempt

July 2, 2014
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FRAMA Part III: Avoiding Countertrend Trading — A First Attempt

This post will begin to experiment with long-term directional detection using relationships between two FRAMA indicators. By observing the relationship … Continue reading →

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A Simple Shiny App for Monitoring Trading Strategies

June 25, 2014
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A Simple Shiny App for Monitoring Trading Strategies

In a previous post I showed how to use  R, Knitr and LaTeX to build a template strategy report. This post goes a step further by making  the analysis  interactive. Besides the interactivity, the Shiny App also solves two problems : I can now access all my trading strategies from a single point regardless of the instrument traded.

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Trading in a low vol world

June 22, 2014
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Trading in a low vol world

I wanted to take a look at what works in low vol environments, such as we are currently experiencing. I am open to the idea we have entered a period of structurally low volatility due to increased regulatory burden and flow on effects from the dec...

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