1626 search results for "Time series"

Great FAJ Article on Statistical Measure of Financial Turbulence Part 3

April 26, 2011
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Great FAJ Article on Statistical Measure of Financial Turbulence Part 3

Building on posts Great FAJ Article on Statistical Measure of Financial Turbulence and Great FAJ Article on Statistical Measure of Financial Turbulence Part 2, I will now build a system incorporating a new correlation-based measure of turbulence and a ...

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Great FAJ Article on Statistical Measure of Financial Turbulence Part 2

April 26, 2011
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Great FAJ Article on Statistical Measure of Financial Turbulence Part 2

I did not intend for this to be a multi-part series, but after some clear thinking at the beach over the weekend, I decided that it needed some more analysis.  For those of you that read the article or know Mahalanobis distance, the measure I pre...

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Job Search Part 4: Timing Beveridge Curve Movements During A Recession

April 25, 2011
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Job Search Part 4: Timing Beveridge Curve Movements During A Recession

This economics blogger feels like he would be cheating the reader if he did not include recent work done by Barnichon and Figura (2010) on timing movements in the unemployment rate during recessions. That is why this is part 4 of my special 5 part mini...

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Measuring association using odds ratios

Measuring association using odds ratios

In my last two posts, I have used the UCI mushroom dataset to illustrate two things.  The first was the use of interestingness measures to characterize categorical variables, and the second was the use of binary confidence intervals...

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Statistical analyses using R

April 22, 2011
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Statistical analyses using R

Another book I received from the Short Book Reviews section of the International Statistical Review is Everitt’s and Hothorn’s Handbook of statistical analyses using R. Here is a version of my book review. This book is the second (blue) edition of a successful (violet) handbook that can benefit a wide audience interested in using

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Sexy, Geeky Graphs using ggplot2 in R

April 22, 2011
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Sexy, Geeky Graphs using ggplot2 in R

So I’ve been looking for some data to play with while learning R, other than the data I’m analysing for various experiments and papers I’m working on. I thought to myself, “Hey, this R stuff is pretty geeky. Can I engage in a higher level of geekiness?” And I think I’ve found a way: using

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Great FAJ Article on Statistical Measure of Financial Turbulence

April 21, 2011
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Great FAJ Article on Statistical Measure of Financial Turbulence

I particularly liked this well-written paper, since unlike most academic research, I was able to understand it, replicate it, and incorporate it.  I know that the Financial Analyst Journal is not considered by the academic community as a top-ti...

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ARMA Models for Trading, Part II

April 20, 2011
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ARMA Models for Trading, Part II

We left the last post at the point of determining the best ARMA model. Before continuing the discussion, however, I would like to make a few points that might seem a bit questionable or unclear: We model the daily returns instead of the prices. There are multiples reasons: this way financial series usually become stationary,

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New Favorite Test of US Monetary Policy Limits

April 20, 2011
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New Favorite Test of US Monetary Policy Limits

After a little additional thought, I discovered that my Death Spiral Warning Graph post can be improved through the isolation of the expected inflation component of US 10y yields provided by the US 10y yield – US 10y TIP yield.  Unfortunately, i...

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Spreadsheet errors

April 20, 2011
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Spreadsheet errors

For my sins, I have done more than my fair share of analysis in Excel. I am quite capable of building and maintaining 130Mb spreadsheets (I had a dozen of them for one client). Excel is pretty much installed everywhere, so it is sometimes the only way...

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