The following R code models a censored dependent variable (in this case academic aptitude) using a traditional least squares, tobit, and Bayesian approaches. As depicted below, the OLS estimates (blue) for censored data are inconsistent and will ...

posterior = (likelihood x prior) / integrated likelihoodThe combination of a prior distribution and a likelihood function is utilized to produce a posterior distribution. Incorporating information from both the prior distribution and the likelihood function leads to a reduction in variance and an improved estimator. As n→...

Today we wish to see how our model would have faired forecasting the past 20 values of GDP. Why? Well ask yourself this: How can you know where your going, if you don't know where you've been? Once you understand please proceed on with the following post.First recall the trend portion that we have already accounted for:> t=(1:258)> t2=t^2> trendy= 892.656210 +...

In my last post, I described three situations where the average of a sequence of numbers is not representative enough to be useful: in the presence of severe outliers, in the face of multimodal data distributions, and in the face of infinite-variance distributions. The post generated three interesting comments that I want to respond to here.First and foremost, I...

<< My review of Day 1. I am summarizing all of the days together since each talk was short, and I was too exhausted to write a post after each day. Due to the broken-up schedule of the KDD sessions, I group everything together instead of switching back and forth among a dozen different topics. By far the most enjoyable...