519 search results for "trading"

ARMA Models for Trading, Part IV

May 31, 2011
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ARMA Models for Trading, Part IV

All posts in this series were combined into a single, extended tutorial and posted on my new blog. The last post promised to show some back testing results for the ARMA techniques. I decided to use the S&P 500 index for this purpose. What really impresses me in the above char it the staggering performance

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Pair-Trading in R – Update

May 7, 2011
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I found amazing R package in one of posts on R-bloggers website. It's called RcppAmadillo and you can find more info here. The function I am using from this package is called fastLm. Whereas I am interested in special case of Ax = b problem where A and...

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ARMA Models for Trading, Part III

May 2, 2011
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ARMA Models for Trading, Part III

In the last post I showed how to pick the parameters for the ARMA model. The next step is to determine the position at the close. One way to do that is by a one day ahead prediction, if the prediction comes negative (remember the series we are operating on is the daily returns) then

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Slightly Different Use of Ralph Vince’s Leverage Space Trading Model

April 28, 2011
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Slightly Different Use of Ralph Vince’s Leverage Space Trading Model

In honor of the press release Dow Jones Indexes To Develop, Co-Brand Index Family With LSP Partners two days ago, I thought I would show another slightly different use of Ralph Vince’s The Leverage Space Trading Model. Using the R LSPM package, we c...

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ARMA Models for Trading, Part II

April 20, 2011
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ARMA Models for Trading, Part II

We left the last post at the point of determining the best ARMA model. Before continuing the discussion, however, I would like to make a few points that might seem a bit questionable or unclear: We model the daily returns instead of the prices. There are multiples reasons: this way financial series usually become stationary,

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Introduction to Cointegration and Pairs Trading

April 15, 2011
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Introduction to Cointegration and Pairs Trading

Introduction Suppose you see two drunks (i.e., two random walks) wandering around. The drunks don’t know each other (they’re independent), so there’s no meaningful relationship between their paths. But suppose instead you have a drunk walking with her dog. This … Continue reading →

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Recursive Trading System in R

April 15, 2011
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Recursive Trading System in R

I have a trick knee. Normally, it works just fine. But if I stand on my head when its raining on Tuesdays and Thursdays and pinch my nose, it hurts. Not just a little. It hurts a lot. I went to the doctor and he told me not to stand on my head when it'...

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ARMA Models for Trading, Part I

April 14, 2011
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ARMA Models for Trading, Part I

Lately I have been testing trading models based on methods from various fields: statistics, machine learning, wavelet analysis and others. And I have been doing all that in R! In this series, I will try to share some of these efforts starting with the well-known from statistics Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). There is a

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Pair-Trading with S&P500 Companies – Part II.

April 10, 2011
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Today I'm going to share with you further outcomes of my research in statistical arbitrage trading technique - pair-trading. In the first part of pair-trading with S&P500 Companies I used downloaded data from yahoo to identify co-integrated pairs. Next stage is to take closer look at results and identify potentially profitable pairs. As an example

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Pair-Trading with S&P500 Companies – Part I.

March 30, 2011
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In my recent post I wrote the code to download historical data for companies included in S&P500 index. Today I would like to perform statistical procedures to identify whether certain pair of stocks is co-integrated or not. Since there are approximately 500 companies that means I will need to perform calculations of testing. First of

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