526 search results for "trading"

Update on Scary Derivatives

November 16, 2011
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Update on Scary Derivatives

After reading Bloomberg’s article, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., among the world’s biggest traders of credit derivatives, disclosed to shareholders that they have sold protection on more than $5 trillion of debt globally. ...

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Performance measurement is about decisions

November 16, 2011
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Performance measurement is about decisions

The return of a hypothetical fund was 17.9% in 2010.  We want to know if that is good or bad. The benchmark method The assets in the portfolio are constituents of the S&P 500, so we can compare our fund return to the return of the index. Figure 1: 2010 returns of: the fund and … Continue reading...

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Black-Litterman Model

November 15, 2011
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Black-Litterman Model

The Black-Litterman Model was created by Fisher Black and Robert Litterman in 1992 to resolve shortcomings of traditional Markovitz mean-variance asset allocation model. It addresses following two items: Lack of diversification of portfolios on the mean-variance efficient frontier. Instability of portfolios on the mean-variance efficient frontier: small changes in the input assumptions often lead to

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The mystery of volatility estimates from daily versus monthly returns

November 8, 2011
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The mystery of volatility estimates from daily versus monthly returns

What drives the estimates apart? Previously A post by Investment Performance Guy prompted “Variability of volatility estimates from daily data”. In my comments to the original post I suggested that using daily data to estimate volatility would be equivalent to using monthly data except with less variability.  Dave, the Investment Performance Guy, proposed the exquisitely … Continue reading...

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Covered Call ETF Performance

October 31, 2011
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Covered Call ETF Performance

Covered call ETFs have become quite popular lately. Living in Canada, I have been holding a couple Canadian members of this family for the last few months. When I purchased them, I liked the benefits and since I wasn’t expecting any bull markets on the horizon, I bought some. These were new products back them,

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Risk parity

October 31, 2011
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Risk parity

Some thoughts and resources regarding a popular fund management buzzword. The idea Given asset categories (like stocks, bonds and commodities) create a portfolio where each category contributes equally to the portfolio variance. Two operations There are two cases in creating a risk parity portfolio: the universe is the asset categories the universe is the assets … Continue reading...

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Predictability of stock returns : Using acf()

October 27, 2011
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Predictability of stock returns : Using acf()

In my previous post, I employed a rather crude and non-parametric approach to see if I could predict the direction of stock returns using the function runs.test(). Lets go a step further and try modelling this with a parametric econometric approach. The company that I choose for the study is INFOSYS (NSE code INFY). Lets start...

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How to compute portfolio returns badly

October 24, 2011
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How to compute portfolio returns badly

For those who naturally compute portfolio returns correctly here are some lessons in how to do it wrong. The data Random portfolios were generated from constituents of the S&P 500 with constraints: long-only exactly 20 assets in the portfolio no more than 10% weight for any asset (just for fun) the sum of the 5 … Continue reading...

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Backtesting Part 4: random strategies

October 21, 2011
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Backtesting Part 4: random strategies

Note: This post is NOT financial advice!  This is just a fun way to explore some of the capabilities R has for importing and manipulating data.   In part 2, we found that our 200-day high, hold 100 days strategy yielded average annual return...

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R. I. P. EMA

October 19, 2011
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R. I. P. EMA

That’s right, I am moving away from exponential moving averages. Originally, I decided to use them somewhat arbitrary, probably because they tend to swing faster. Last night, after spending two and half hours debugging an issue which yet again turned out to be a particular property of these averages, I made my mind. I am

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