I managed to catch David Spiegelhalter’s Tails You Win on BBC iplayer last week. I missed it the first time round, only for my parents on my last visit home to tell me about a Statistician jumping out of a … Continue reading →
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Bank of England Fan Charts in R
In three months, I’ll be in Vegas (trying to win against the house)
In fact, I’m going there with my family and some friends, including two probabilists (I mean professionals, I am merely an amateur), with this incredible challenge: will I be able to convince probabilists to go to play at the Casino? Actually, I also want to study them carefully, to understand how we should play optimally. For example, I hope...
Le Monde puzzle [#817]
The weekly Le Monde puzzle is (again) a permutation problem that can be rephrased as follows: Find where denotes the set of permutations on {0,…,10} and is defined modulo 11 . Same question for and for This is rather straightforward to code if one adopts a brute-force approach:: (where I 
Math symbols in R charts: a cheat sheet
If you're creating a scientific graphic in the R language, there's a good chance you'll be wanting to include some mathematical symbols somewhere on the chart. You might want to use a symbol like μ as an axis label, annotate a curve with simple math like x2, or even put a complete equation like: in the title. You can...
Simulating the Gambler’s Ruin
The gambler’s ruin problem is one where a player has a probability p of winning and probability q of losing. For example let’s take a skill game where the player x can beat player y with probability 0.6 by getting closer to target. The game play begins with player x being allotted 5 points and player y allotted 10
Travis CI for R! (not yet)
A few days ago I wrote about Travis CI, and was wondering if we could integrate the testing of R packages into this wonderful platform. A reader (Vincent Arel-Bundock) pointed out in the comments that Travis was running Ubuntu that allows you to install software packages at your will.
I took a look at the documentation, and realized...
Reserving with negative increments in triangles
A few months ago, I did published a post on negative values in triangles, and how to deal with them, when using a Poisson regression (the post was published in French). The idea was to use a translation technique: Fit a model not on ‘s but on , for some , Use that model to make predictions, and then...
High Obesity levels found among fat-tailed distributions
In my never ending quest to find the perfect measure of tail fatness, I ran across this recent paper by Cooke, Nieboer, and Misiewicz. They created a measure called the “Obesity index.” Here’s how it works: Step 1: Sample four times from a distribution. The sample points should be independent and identically distributed (did your
Dirichlet Process, Infinite Mixture Models, and Clustering
The Dirichlet process provides a very interesting approach to understand group assignments and models for clustering effects. Often time we encounter the k-means approach. However, it is necessary to have a fixed number of clusters. Often we encounter situations where we don’t know how many fixed clusters we need. Suppose we’re trying to identify
Subtraction Is Crazy
I was re-reading Michael Murray’s explanation of cointegration:
and marvelling at the calculus.
Calculus blows my mind sometimes. Like, hey guess how much we can do with subtraction.
— protëa(@isomorphisms) March 28, 2013
Of course it’s not any subtraction. It’s subtracting a function from a shifted version of itself. Still doesn’t sound like a universal revolution.
(But of course the...
Zero Inflated Models and Generalized Linear Mixed Models with R.
Zuur, Saveliev, Ieno (2012).
