This post describes a Shiny app that identifies fantasy football sleepers. The app allows you to modify your league settings, and calculates robust averages of projections across numerous sources. Best of all, the app updates the selections automatically with your inputs, and you can download the data for yourself. So let’s get to it. Here’s a more thorough description:
How it Works
First, I use a script to scrape player’s projected points from numerous sources. Second, I take user inputs on league settings to calculate projections that are custom tailored for your league (e.g., based on how many points a passing TD is worth in your league). The projections are calculated using a robust average (Hodges-Lehmann estimator) so they are not driven by outliers. Third, I calculate the value of each player over a typical replacement player at his position. Fourth, I calculate players’ risk levels, as defined by the standard deviation (uncertainty) around the players’ ranks and projections across sources from experts and the wisdom of the crowd. Note that risk is standardized to have a mean of 5 and a standard deviation of 2. Fifth, I display the number of players specified by the user, displaying players with the highest risk whose upside is at least 80 points (and only those players with above average risk–i.e., risk > 5). Finally, the players are ranked by their “value over replacement”.
Note on sleepers: Sleepers should be drafted later in the draft as bench players because such a move has a low risk, high reward potential. It may also be worth noting that for bench players, value over replacement may be less important than a player’s upside because they only contribute to the team’s points if they score enough points to be on the starting lineup. I’ve included players’ upside potential in the output, as defined by the players’ average projection plus the standard deviation of his projections across different sources.
Typical Replacement for QBs: the position rank set to be the “typical replacement player” for a QB (default is 15 from FootballGuys).
Typical Replacement for RBs” the position rank set to be the “typical replacement player” for a RB (default is 36 from FootballGuys).
Typical Replacement for WRs: the position rank set to be the “typical replacement player” for a WR (default is 38 from FootballGuys).
Typical Replacement for TEs: the position rank set to be the “typical replacement player” for a TE (default is 8 from FootballGuys).
Passing Yards Per Point: How many passing yards are worth 1 fantasy point?
Points Per Passing TD: How many points is each passing touchdown worth?
Points Per Passing INT: How many points is each interception worth?
Rushing Yards Per Point: How many rushing yards are worth 1 fantasy point?
Points Per Rushing TD: How many points is each rushing touchdown worth?
Points Per Reception: How many points are receptions worth?
Receiving Yards Per Point: How many receiving yards are worth 1 fantasy point?
Points Per Receiving TD: How many points is each receiving touchdown worth?
Points Per Fumble: How many points is each fumble worth?
The Shiny App
Below is the Shiny App for calculating custom projections for your fantasy football league. For the original Shiny App, go to: http://fantasyfootballanalytics.net:3838/Sleepers/
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