Blog Archives

Forecasting in R: Starting From Square One

August 16, 2011
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Forecasting in R: Starting From Square One

Okay in the past few posts I jumped the gun a little bit.  Errors I made include rushing everything, not explaining anything and not giving my blog readers the love and respect they deserve.  What am I talking about? Well before we do anythin...

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Breaking it up into trend and seasonal and error components

August 14, 2011
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Breaking it up into trend and seasonal and error components

 GDP=scan("/Users/stevensabol/Desktop/R/gdp.csv")Read 258 items> GDP=ts(GDP,start=1,frequency=4)> dlGDP=diff(log(GDP))> plot(stl(log(GDP),"per"))This allows us to do a structural decompositionlog(GDP) = trend + season + error Here is...

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Get those plots

August 14, 2011
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Get those plots

Type in the following to get a Q-Q plot and a histogram on top of each otherpar(mfrow=c(2,1))> hist(dlGDP,prob=T,12)> lines(density(dlGDP))> qqnorm(dlGDP)> qqline(dlGDP)the top graph says that the errors are pretty nicely distributed around...

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Playing In R: Getting Down to Business

August 14, 2011
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Playing In R: Getting Down to Business

okay so now we are up and plotting. Let's dive into some analysis.First we want to see if we can use the series so we have to see if its covariance stationary and that means that its mean is constant and also we can't be able to predict the e...

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Playing Around With R

August 14, 2011
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Playing Around With R

okay so today we will start playing around with R and will use GDP as our ginny pig.okay so first do the following:1. DOWNLOAD R2. Create a folder and call it "R" on your desktop.  Then type ingetwd()this will produce the current place where R fin...

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The Dancing Economist’s content will be statistically enhanced.

August 13, 2011
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The Dancing Economist’s content will be statistically enhanced.

Recently, I have been fed up. Why? because I wanted to produce professional forecasts on my blog but don't have SAS. I wanted to forecast with some AR, ARMA and ARIMA models, but couldn't. Completely heartbroken. I got to thinking-  R co...

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Informational Easing: A Change In F.O.M.C. Expectations

August 10, 2011
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Informational Easing: A Change In F.O.M.C. Expectations

Let's analyze the latest FOMC policy move.The FOMC met yesterday and changed up the communications strategy.  How so? Well, until yesterday the statement has been saying as of June 22, 2011:"The Committee continues to anticipat...

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The Road to Default: Whaa???

July 29, 2011
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The Road to Default: Whaa???

Okay so here is what has been happening:The yield curve has been going through a mad flattening- indicating that investors are "flying to safety" and that a recession may be looming around the corner. Why has it been flattening? Well, a string of bad n...

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The Road To Default: Still No Agreement

July 25, 2011
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The Road To Default: Still No Agreement

Another day and yet another failed agreement. The u.s. Is in trouble folks. Even if a debt deal is reached there is still widespread consensus that the u.s. will lose its AAA credit rating. More to come later.Keep dancin'Steven J.

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A Quick Look At Unemployment

July 21, 2011
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A Quick Look At Unemployment

Labor market tightness is defined as the vacancies or job openings rate divided by the unemployment rate.  The theory goes that as job openings increase relative to the unemployment rate a tightness is created in that workers get the upper hand in...

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