Blog Archives

Historical Sources of Bond Returns-Comparison of Daily to Monthly

April 17, 2011
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Historical Sources of Bond Returns-Comparison of Daily to Monthly

Thanks so much for the comment on my last post Historical Bond Price and Total Returns from 10y Yield Series “I know this might sound antithetical to a bond guy, but won't the monthly series get you close enough? “ which proved me wrong and allow...

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Historical Bond Price and Total Returns from 10y Yield Series

April 15, 2011
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Historical Bond Price and Total Returns from 10y Yield Series

Without access to Barclays or Merrill Bond Indicies to the 1970s or Ned Davis to 1950, studying historical bond returns is very difficult.  Here is a way to derive price and total returns on the 10 year US Treasury back to 1962.  I would like...

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Historical Sources of Bond Returns with Shiller Data 1919-2011

April 11, 2011
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Historical Sources of Bond Returns with Shiller Data 1919-2011

And as usual, I always want a longer data set, so after a little playing with R-Excel, we can extend our historical sources of bond returns to 1919.  If nothing else, maybe you can find other uses for the Shiller Dataset in R. From TimelyPort...

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Historical Sources of Bond Returns

April 11, 2011
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Historical Sources of Bond Returns

As promised in Monitoring Sources of Bond Return, we can show more history if we use CPI instead of expected inflation (from the TIP inflation breakeven yield).  Here are the results with history back to 1953. From TimelyPortfolio However, mo...

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Monitoring Sources of Bond Return

April 8, 2011
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Monitoring Sources of Bond Return

Here is a way to monitor bond return sources in R.  In the next iteration, I will use CPI to add history to the series. From TimelyPortfolio So right now, you can expect about a 5% return from bonds.  How much of that is real return is u...

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Bond Market as a Casino Game Part 2

April 6, 2011
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Bond Market as a Casino Game Part 2

Before starting Part 2, please see Bonds as a Casino Game Part 1.   For the Monte Carlo random simulation purists, please ignore some unimportant technicalities in my simulation. To spoil the fun, here is the conclusion: Any way you look at ...

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Bond Market as a Casino Game Part 1

April 1, 2011
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Bond Market as a Casino Game Part 1

With this post, I am doing something I try very hard to avoid, especially when communicating to my clients, and that is blurring the line between investing and gambling.  But after reading all of Reuven Brenner’s books and finishing Ralph Vince ...

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Long EEM Short IWM-How it Works in 3 Ways

March 31, 2011
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Long EEM Short IWM-How it Works in 3 Ways

Long EEM Short IWM potentially works in 3 ways: 1) See my last post “Asian Currency Opportunity” where currency undervaluation means potential gain of 20-50% versus the US$ and 50%-100% versus the Japanese Yen.  However, even absent the underv...

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Asian Currency Opportunity

March 31, 2011
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Asian Currency Opportunity

Asian currencies are fundamentally undervalued at an extreme level due to the Central Banks’ focus on the US$.  For those that regularly read my blog or happened to see me in SmartMoney, this will not surprise you, “And investors can also buy...

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The Leverage Space Trading Model

March 29, 2011
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The Leverage Space Trading Model

I finally got around to reading Ralph Vince’s latest The Leverage Space Trading Model (for a brief summary see this magazine article in Futures), and I’m happy to say that the book was very helpful in approach and example.  I especially enjoye...

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