Blog Archives

Trading with SVMs: Performance

December 13, 2012
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Trading with SVMs: Performance

To get a feeling of SVM performance in trading, I run different setups on the S&P 500 historical data from … the 50s. The main motif behind using this decade was to decide what parameters to vary and what to keep steady prior to running the most important tests. Treat it as an “in-sample” test

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Trading with Support Vector Machines (SVM)

November 30, 2012
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Trading with Support Vector Machines (SVM)

Finally all the stars have aligned and I can confidently devote some time for back-testing of new trading systems, and Support Vector Machines (SVM) are the new “toy” which is going to keep me busy for a while. SVMs are a well-known tool from the area of supervised Machine Learning, and they are used both

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Parallelized Back Testing

November 16, 2012
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As mentioned earlier, currently I am playing with trading strategies based on Support Vector Machines. At a high level, the approach is quite similar to what I have implemented for my ARMA+GARCH strategy. Briefly, the simulation goes as follows: we step through the series one period (day, week, etc) at a time. For each period,

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Back-testing Rules

November 10, 2012
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Back-testing Rules

Nowadays there are many trading strategies shared online with reproducible, decent, results. Have you asked yourself, if the strategies are so profitable, why the author bother even sharing them, when the path to riches is clear – just implement the strategy and use it? There are people, of course, who are fascinated and challenged by

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Unstable parallel simulation, or after finishing testing, test some more

November 2, 2012
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Lately I have been working on a trading system based on Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression (and yes, if you wonder, there are a few posts planned to share the results). In this post however I want to share an interesting problem I had to deal with. Few days ago, I started running simulations using

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A Greedy ARMA/GARCH Model Selection

October 26, 2012
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An idea that I have been toying for a while, has been to study the effect of a domain-specific optimization strategy in the ARMA+GARCH models. If you recall from this long tutorial, the implemented approach cycles through all models within a the specified ranges for the parameters and chooses the best model based on the

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ARMA Models for Trading

August 21, 2012
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ARMA Models for Trading

In this tutorial I am going to share my R&D and trading experience using the well-known from statistics Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). There is a lot written about these models, however, I strongly recommend Introductory Time Series with R, which I find is a perfect combination between light theoretical background and practical implementations in

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