Blog Archives

What are the Odds of an Independent Scotland?

August 18, 2014
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What are the Odds of an Independent Scotland?

“For things to remain the same, everything must change.” (Gattopardo by Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa) In less than a month, Scots will decide if they want Scotland tied or apart of UK. Over the last days, I’ve noticed a variety of projections in the British press about this, but I decided to give it a

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Discontinuity Bayesian Forecasting

July 16, 2014
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Discontinuity Bayesian Forecasting

I’m finalizing a paper presentation for the ABCP meeting, where I explore poor polling forecast in local elections in Brazil. I drew upon the Jackman (2005)’s paper “Pooling the Polls” to explore a bit about “house effects” in the Brazilian context. However, during the analysis I found myself extending his original model to fit the

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Parallel computing in R

July 1, 2014
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Parallel computing in R

Roughly a year ago I published an article about parallel computing in R here, in which I compared computation performance among 4 packages that provide R with parallel features once R is essentially a single-thread task package. Parallel computing is incredibly useful, but not every thing worths distribute across as many cores as possible. Actually,

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Do you believe in World Cup superstition?

June 24, 2014
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Do you believe in World Cup superstition?

If you believe in supernatural causality, you will love what the numbers of the World Cup have to say which team is going to win this Cup in Brazil. According to this numerology approach neither Brazil nor Germany or Netherlands will be the winner, but Uruguay. The table below shows my reason. This was produced

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R issues with Portuguese diacritics

June 21, 2014
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I started writing in Portuguese (á, é, í, ó, ú, ç, etc.) inside R for MAC, but I receive some encoding issues, so I managed to fix it at once by simply typing the following command in the terminal: defaults write org.R-project.R force.LANG en_US.UTF-8

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More on TV Ads and Presidential Elections

June 4, 2014
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In my last post, I was telling about the Brazilian influential incentives for parties to coalesce based on the share of TV advertising a party holds. I just played around with those data I have gathered to produce the following chart. It's not colors-representative of the parties, which would take a while to adjust. The

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2014 Brazilian Election

April 24, 2014
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2014 Brazilian Election

Election is coming soon in Brazil and this is told to be The Election for both the ruling party and the opposition. However, I don't believe to see any surprise in the reelection plans of the incumbent president, Dilma Rousseff, though all past demonstrations, poorly on economic scorecard, and the atypical election where the two

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