Blog Archives

LDA on Ferguson Grand Jury I

December 9, 2014
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LDA on Ferguson Grand Jury I

Tweet The case of Michael Brown, an unarmed black teenager, who was shot and killed on August 9th, by Darren Wilson, a white police officer, in Ferguson has driven public opinion around the globe to the suburb of St. Louis. After few weeks, on Nov. 24, the St. Louis County prosecutor announced that a grand … Read More...

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Study of a plot

December 3, 2014
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Study of a plot

I began to think on a nice way of plotting campaign expenditures in a paper I'm working on. I thought this would be something like the following--simple but meaningful even when there are outliers in both tails. Though I like the seniors Tukey's boxplot and scatter plots, I had already used them the last time … Read More...

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Flowers/Fractals

November 21, 2014
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Flowers/Fractals

Last week, I attended a "Flower Fest" where I had the opportunity to admire several of the most beautiful and awarded flowers, orchids, and decoration plants. Surprisingly, though, I never had thought of flowers like fractals the way I did this time. Fractals attract lots of interest, especially from mathematicians who actually spend some time … Read More...

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Stacking files made easy

November 20, 2014
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Every campaign cycle I usually do similar things, go to a repository, download a bounce of data, merge and store them to an existing RData file for posterior analysis. I've already wrote about this topic some time ago, but this time I think my script became simpler. Set the Directory Let's assume you're not in … Read More...

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Frente Amplio Winnability

November 14, 2014
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Frente Amplio Winnability

Uruguayan voters are about to give give Frente Amplio a third mandate this November 30th. The following graph shows how the outcome would look like if the election were held this week. The undecided voters were distributed accordingly to each party as by the election day. The picture draws the pdf's for FA and PN … Read More...

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Runoff in Uruguay: FA is expected to win a third mandate

November 14, 2014
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Runoff in Uruguay: FA is expected to win a third mandate

Within 2 weeks, electors in Uruguay will vote for the runoff election between FA and PN. According to the polling data being published, it's very likely Uruguayans will give FA a third mandate. I run the following forecast model which suggest that the difference between the two parties are huge; even greater than the number … Read More...

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Brazilian latest polls and house effects

October 25, 2014
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Brazilian latest polls and house effects

The latest polls just released tonight are suggesting a numerical tie between Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Aecio Neves (PSDB) considering the limit of the margin of error. Actually, these polls fired up a possible game-changing for the opposition over the government as some of the polls did capture any impact stimulated by the televised debate … Read More...

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What are the chances of Dilma tomorrow?

October 25, 2014
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What are the chances of Dilma tomorrow?

Although polling data are the most common source in an electoral campaign, there are also models that use prediction markets data (trade contracts flow) as the source of information about who is going to win the election. What is the best way of predicting an election is up to debate, but models based on the … Read More...

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Simple Probs

October 24, 2014
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Simple Probs

Somebody said me that it'd be really nice to see a posting with simple simulations for the runoff this weekend. Answering such a call, this is the best I could come up with. The following is a highly simplified simulation that does not account for time trends nor for house effects. But it's still theoretically … Read More...

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A bit more fragmented

October 6, 2014
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A bit more fragmented

Tweet This year election renders an even more fragmented legislative. The way political scientists measure this is by applying an algorithm to calculate the Effective Number of Parties, which is a measure that helps to go beyond the simple number of parties. A widely accepted algorithm was proposed by M. Laakso and R. Taagepera: , … Read More...

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