Blog Archives

Direction of Change Forecasting using a Dynamic Binary Model

September 12, 2013
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Direction of Change Forecasting using a Dynamic Binary Model

While it is generally accepted that the returns of financial assets are almost impossible to forecast with any degree of accuracy which would provide meaningful profit1 , there is evidence that the sign of the returns is much more forecastable. Theoretically, Christoffersen and Diebold (2006) have shown how the forecastability of the sign is related

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Development Update

July 25, 2013
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This is a quick update regarding the status of my R packages on google code. Since google decided to disallow uploads from Jan-2014 for existing projects, and immediately for new ones (meaning that the tarballs and zips could not be hosted on their servers anymore), I have had no choice but to return the development

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Development Update

July 25, 2013
By

This is a quick update regarding the status of my R packages on google code. Since google decided to disallow uploads from Jan-2014 for existing projects, and immediately for new ones (meaning that the tarballs and zips could not be hosted on their servers anymore), I have had no choice but to return the development

Read more »

The Fallacy of 1/N and Static Weight Allocation

June 18, 2013
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The Fallacy of 1/N and Static Weight Allocation

In the last few years there has been a increasing tendency to ignore the value of a disciplined quantitative approach to the portfolio allocation process in favor of simple and static weighting schemes such as equal weighting or some type of adjusted volatility weighting. The former simply ignores the underlying security dynamics, assuming equal risk-return,

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The Fallacy of 1/N and Static Weight Allocation

June 18, 2013
By
The Fallacy of 1/N and Static Weight Allocation

In the last few years there has been a increasing tendency to ignore the value of a disciplined quantitative approach to the portfolio allocation process in favor of simple and static weighting schemes such as equal weighting or some type of adjusted volatility weighting. The former simply ignores the underlying security dynamics, assuming equal risk-return,

Read more »

Time Varying Higher Moments with the racd package.

April 22, 2013
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Time Varying Higher Moments with the racd package.

The Autoregressive Conditional Density (ACD) model of Hansen (1994) extended GARCH models to include time variation in the higher moment parameters. It was a somewhat natural extension to the premise of time variation in the conditional mean and variance, though it probably raised more questions than it, or subsequent research have been able to answer.

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Time Varying Higher Moments with the racd package.

April 22, 2013
By
Time Varying Higher Moments with the racd package.

The Autoregressive Conditional Density (ACD) model of Hansen (1994) extended GARCH models to include time variation in the higher moment parameters. It was a somewhat natural extension to the premise of time variation in the conditional mean and variance, though it probably raised more questions than it, or subsequent research have been able to answer.

Read more »

High Frequency GARCH: The multiplicative component GARCH (mcsGARCH) model

March 20, 2013
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High Frequency GARCH: The multiplicative component GARCH (mcsGARCH) model

The interest in high frequency trading and models has grown exponentially in the last decade. While I have some doubts about the validity of any signals emerging from all the noise at higher and higher frequencies, I have nevertheless decided to look at the statistical modelling of intraday returns using GARCH models. Unlike daily and

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High Frequency GARCH: The multiplicative component GARCH (mcsGARCH) model

March 20, 2013
By
High Frequency GARCH: The multiplicative component GARCH (mcsGARCH) model

The interest in high frequency trading and models has grown exponentially in the last decade. While I have some doubts about the validity of any signals emerging from all the noise at higher and higher frequencies, I have nevertheless decided to look at the statistical modelling of intraday returns using GARCH models. Unlike daily and

Read more »

Whats new in rugarch (ver 1.01-5)

February 27, 2013
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Whats new in rugarch (ver 1.01-5)

Since the last release of rugarch on CRAN (ver 1.0-16), there have been many changes and new features in the development version of the package (ver 1.01-5). First, development of the package (and svn) has been moved to google code from r-forge. Second, the package now features exclusive use of xts based time series for

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